Page 55 - Australian Defence Magazine October 2019
P. 55

PACIFIC
HYPERSONICS
Of course, there’s always a possibility that war could break out through a sequence of events outside your control. It pays to be pre- pared, and part of that preparation involves keeping ahead of the curve and investing in hypersonics. Yet for all China’s military investments, RAND forecasts show that it remains highly likely to lose a war with the US of any length or severity, and it makes little sense to risk internal collapse by initi- ating a war that you’d eventually lose.
Friction killed the warship
So, you can’t break down the wall by force. What are your other options? What strengths can you leverage to reduce your vulnerability?
Let’s return to the prediction underpin- ning Hugh White’s argument: China’s demographic and economic growth trajec- tory will erode US primacy in Asia. This prediction also underpins the arguments of many of White’s critics and those offer- ing alternative post-America strategies for Australia. Although China faces plenty of its own challenges, including economic
The 6- by 10-Inch Supersonic Low-Disturbance Tunnel testing tunnel at NASA. The US has a long history of hypersonic research.
deceleration and a demographic bubble, let’s assume it is accurate.
Erosion is a product of time
and friction. China’s autocratic political system grants its leader-
ship a greater time horizon than
US presidents constrained by elec-
toral cycles. An alternative course
of action, therefore, is to apply
friction and wait for the wall to erode, like waves beating against the rocks.
Of course, it is always possible that Bei- jing’s hand could be forced, particularly by a declaration of independence from Tai- wan. Yet the sheer risks and costs involved means war is unlikely to be Beijing’s pre- ferred course of action.
“There are limits to China’s patience,” Prof Davies said. “Hong Kong is starting to show that now. If one of the pillars of
Communist legitimacy falls over, there’s always the danger that they will resort to the other. I don’t think you can rule out sleepwalking into a stupid war.”
If we assume Beijing can avoid sleep- walking into war, the two basic options available to Chinese leaders looking to secure the country’s future are to try and break US primacy in Asia by force, or apply friction and wait for economics and demo- graphics to do the rest. The first option is
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www.australiandefence.com.au | October 2019 | 55
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