Page 88 - Australian Defence Magazine October 2019
P. 88

PACIFIC
AI
external such as changes in the operational environment that extend what is required in nominal operations and missions.
Virtual testing and the development of digital twins are set to become an impor- tant tool for test & evaluation in industry (see more on the Ship Zero concept on P36). The qualification of uncertainty as- sociated with step 4 is fundamental for au- tonomy. No matter how much testing we can do on a system, we will always remain uncertain about particular aspects of its behaviour. There are different ways to con- duct uncertainty quantification.
Addressing uncertainty
One way is to consider hypotheses about behaviours and use the data collected dur- ing the assessment step to compute prob- abilities about the truth or falsity of these hypotheses over the envelope of operation- al conditions dictated by the mission. The uncertainty must then be communicated to different stakeholders to inform their decision process. Regulators face deci- sions about certification, actuaries face
decisions about insurance of operations; defence and other end users face decisions about acquisitions of systems for particu- lar operations and missions; developers face design decisions to develop technolo- gies that target particular operations.
All these stakeholders face decisions which must be made under uncertainty. Hence, step 4 provides key information to inform their decision process. Step 5 ad- dresses the need to match the information to the decision context of different stake- holders - if the information is not provid- ed in the correct way, it can hinder rather than helping the decision process. Making decisions about autonomy in the context of different stakeholders is not a simple task, and many stakeholders will need in- dependent support. This provides an op- portunity to develop a new component of the industry dedicated to the support.
At the Trusted Autonomous Systems Defence CRC, we are developing Austra- lia’s sandbox for assurance of autonomy. We are bringing together stakeholders such as regulators, legislators, defence, re-
searchers, and industry to test frameworks such as the six-step one describe above. We are seeking to exploit the unique opportu- nities that exist in Australia for the poten- tial to lead in the deployment of autono- mous systems can operate safely, routinely, and sustainably.
Developing trust in autonomy will re- quire the adoption of models of trust and guidelines for the development of systems that incorporate integrity followed by new ways of conducting test & evaluation in order to establish competency. Auton- omy, in this article embodied by Digital Mike, plays particular roles that paral- lel the ones currently played by humans; to operate, navigate, communicate while also managing contingencies. The way we assess the competency of humans today in relation to these roles through behaviours can help us to find ways to assess the com- petency of autonomy.
Note: Dr Tristan Perez is the Leader of Au- tonomy Assurance at the Trusted Autono- mous Systems Defence CRC.
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