Page 24 - Australian Defence Magazine Dec 2018 - Jan 2019

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Geo-strategic perspective
Moving to a SWOT analysis of Australia’s geo-strategic picture, Professor John Blax- land, head of the ANU’s Strategic and De- fence Studies Centre, referred to a long list of really serious concerns – not just econom- ic security but a spectrum of environmental challenges and issues involving political and human security, cyber security and mari- time, territorial and homeland security.
On the plus side, the Australian economy was strong, the country had an educated workforce and an impressive albeit tiny de- fence force, coupled with an alliance with the US whose substance and intimacy was often not appreciated. Referring to the joint Defence facility at Pine Gap, Professor Blaxland commented;
“Let me assure you, ladies and gentlemen, Pine Gap is flash. Successive governments have had no questions in their minds about the enduring relevance and importance of that facility.
"This jewel in the crown is extraordinary in terms of its utility to the alliance and for bol- stering Australia’s defence. The US is not go- ing away (from that), it’s not going anywhere.”
Operational implications for Australia of Chinese militarisation of the South China Sea were detailed by Dr Malcolm Davis, Se- nior Analyst Defence Strategy and Capabil- ity at ASPI.
Forward deployment of China’s long range airpower (H-6K bombers or the fu- ture H-20) would bring all of Australia’s northern defence facilities within range of Chinese cruise missile systems in a major crisis or during wartime. The Chinese bases would be heavily protected, he noted.
Deployment of long-range Chinese fight- ers – J-10C, J-11B, J-16, J-20 and Sukhoi 35s – would make it much more difficult for the RAAF to support joint expeditionary forces alongside coalition partners in any opera- tions within the South China Sea or beyond.
Furthermore, Chinese air and naval con- trol of the South China Sea from bases in the Spratly Islands would give China the ability, should it choose to do so, to inter- fere with maritime commerce through the Southeast Asian archipelago and affect the flow of vital fuel and energy resources to the Australian market.
“Australia’s energy security is in a parlous state given the lack of an adequate energy reserve (we have between 20 and 40 days rather than 90 days as mandated by mem- bership in the International Energy Agen- cy) or any real onshore refining capacity,” Dr Davis stated.
24 | December 2018 – January 2019 |
DEFENCE BUSINESS
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