Page 61 - Australian Defence Magazine September 2019

A SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT | CANBERRA
Here’s a topic not much discussed in Canberra lately, with the election, the government settling back in, the usual stuff. That’s Afghanistan, where Australia still has around 300 personnel assisting Afghan security forces build their capability.
Is it time to leave
Stratfor says prospects of a peace deal are higher than ever. The US wants this to happen, as does the Taliban’s main backer Pakistan which is seeking closer ties with Washington.
Australia would likely follow the US out the door. The last significant drawdown of Australian troops at the end of combat oper- ations in 2013 was partly based on the need for a greater commitment to this region.
Six years on and the imperative for stron- ger regional engagement is even stronger to counter rising Chinese influence in the Sino-Pacific. The statement from the lat- est Australia-US Ministerial (AUSMIN) meeting, held in Sydney in the first week in August, put it this way:
“Minister Payne and Secretary Pompeo agreed that our alliance today is more vital than ever, with our work together in the Indo-Pacific region the clear, shared focus,” said the joint statement.
And to make it completely clear precisely who they were referring to:
“The principals expressed serious con- cerns at continued militarisation of disput- ed features in the South China Sea. They strongly objected to coercive unilateral ac- tions by any claimant state that could alter the status quo and increase tensions,” the statement said.
For the US, the focus has moved from the wars on terror to great power competition – China, Russia and also Iran but mostly China.
But given President Trump is facing re- election next year, you would have to won- der whether the 'great deal maker' might see some political mileage in a media opportu- nity to trumpet the success of negotiations ending America’s longest war.
In other words, might we see the Presi- dent visiting Doha and making out like best buddies with the bearded Taliban emissar- ies as he did with Kim and Putin? You’d have to wonder.
Corporal Symond Murphy is currently deployed to Kandahar Airfield in Afghanistan.
He provides force protection for Australian Advisors training UH60A Blackhawk helicopter pilots and crew in the Afghan Air Force.
Afghanistan?
BUT it’s been 18 years since the first Aus- sie boot set foot in Afghan dust; is it finally time to get the heck out?
Former Army Chief Peter Leahy, now direc- tor of the National Security Institute at Canber- ra University says in the absence of a good rea- son to stay, we should leave Afghanistan now.
The same applies to the training mission in Iraq, now in its fourth year.
“As we consider leaving Iraq and Af- ghanistan, we should ask two questions. Why did we go and why have we stayed for so long? Our objective now in Afghani- stan seems to be not to lose. That's no lon- ger good enough. Our continued presence in Iraq is even harder to justify,” General Leahy wrote in a recent opinion piece in the Financial Review. “There is more important work to be done closer to Australia. The Pa- cific Step Up confirms us in our region with strategic objectives that are clearly in our na- tional interests.”
Two developments would point to Aus- tralia’s reconsideration of both missions, possibly sooner rather than later.
One is the ongoing peace talks between the US and Afghan Taliban, which now look they might actually be going some- where. These have been spluttering along, the intractable issue being Taliban insistence that all foreign forces leave the country.
There was something of a setback in 2015, when it was revealed that the reclusive Tali- ban leader Mullah Omar, who everyone assumed was still in charge and calling the shots on peace negotiations, had actually been dead for two years.
There were competing claims that he died of entirely natural causes and that he was as-
sassinated in fighting between the diverse insurgent groups which go under the general Taliban banner. In Afghanistan tribal poli- tics, that almost qualifies as natural causes.
Talks, being conducted in Qatar, are now in their eighth round and at the end of July, lead US negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad tweeted that the US was ready to conclude the agreement provided the Taliban did their part.
US private sector intelligence group Stat- for posits three possible outcomes – the talks collapse and fighting continues, talks and fighting continue or there’s a deal.
A deal would likely feature a permanent ceasefire ending the war, a Taliban pledge to ex- tremist groups like al Qaeda and Islamic State using Afghanistan as a base, a US timeline to withdraw its forces and the Taliban commit to talking to the government in Kabul.
That’s right – Afghanistan’s government isn’t the lead party to these talks. So there would be a whole new round of talks on power sharing and on what elements of the Taliban’s medieval social agenda would re- turn to Afghanistan.
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