Page 74 - Australian Defence Magazine November 2022

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DEFENCE BUSINESS VIEW FROM CANBERRA
NOVEMBER 2022 | WWW.AUSTRALIANDEFENCE.COM.AU
VIEW FROM CANBERRA
As Australia sets about drafting a new strategic update, there are all sorts of useful lessons to be drawn from the conflict in Ukraine.
A SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT | CANBERRA
ONE is drawing the correct lessons. Two is that everyone else, adversaries included, are potentially doing the same. Ukraine has kept plenty of analysts gainfully employed. Drawing on their diverse thoughts, the Atlantic Council came up with a useful list of lessons. Here are a few:
Nimble modern weapons can defeat larger, conventionally armed forces, especially when on the defensive. Actual troop deployments deter better than economic sanctions. Sanc- tions do work but are messy and take time.
Don’t ignore the fundamentals, starting with intelligence, which Russia did at the outset to its great and continuing cost. Decades of energy diplomacy can vanish in an instant, as those European nations dependent on Russian gas can attest.
NATO is a uniquely valuable institution which requires enduring political and financial investment.
There are plenty more but here’s one for Australia, noted by this correspondent and others:
Bushmaster vehicles, which saved lives in Iraq and Af- ghanistan, are also (apparently) saving the lives of Ukrainian soldiers, so much so that Ukraine has asked for more than the 60 promised. The government may even keep open the Thales Bendigo production line to meet demand.
Drones have featured extensively in the Ukraine conflict and counter-UAS technology developed by Australian firm Drone- shield has proved very effective.
That’s because Russian drones such as the Orlan-10 feature Euro- pean, Chinese or US-made circuit- ry which makes them susceptible to detection and jamming.
Like Gulf War 1, Ukraine has proved a showcase to the superiority of western weapons. But one consis- tent feature is that evidence of supe- riority seems to originate in media reports, particularly social media.
The internet is of course full of vi- sion of Russian tanks getting blown sky high by Javelin missiles.
But asked about actual feedback on the success of their missiles in Ukraine, Lockheed Martin told reporters at the Land Forces con- ference that they had heard noth-
ing, other than the aforementioned social media reports. So, what lessons can Australia draw from Ukraine? The obvious one is that high intensity peer-on-peer conflict now
seems more likely than it did not that long ago.
The new strategic review will surely make a statement to this effect but the big question will be what adjustment to force structure will be required to account for this new reality. Already the pundits are lining up. Will Army really need so many (or any) expensive infantry fighting vehicles or main battle tanks when Ukraine has demonstrated how deftly they
have obliterated Russian IFVs and MBTs?
Just as many analysts have pointed out that Russian losses
are more due to tactical ineptitude than any fundamental shortcoming in the platforms.
How about expensive warships? In one view, new Hunter- class frigates, with their limited missile loadout (32 VLS cells) will be wholly inadequate in the type of fight we may encounter.
However, the Hunters are being acquired to deliver an ad- vanced anti-submarine warfare capability and any peer ad- versary will have lots of subs.
If we really need more missiles, how about a few more Hobart-class DDGs, with their 48 VLS cells?
You’d have to think the ADF would expand its UAS force and acquire an armed drone. Readers will of course recall that we well were on our way to acquiring a fleet of General Atom- ics SkyGuardians but the former government canned the plan and diverted the cash to its RedSpice cyber security program.
At the time, that may have been a fair call but experi- ence in Ukraine has underlined the certain omnipresence of drones of all shapes and sizes in any future conflict.
Yet another issue - do we really need expensive and exqui- sitely capable UAS such as SkyGuardian, or would we be better off with a larger number of smaller cheaper platforms akin to the prolific Turkish Baykar Bayraktar TB2? ■
BELOW: Ukraine is reportedly very happy with the Bushmaster Protected Mobility Vehicles donated by the Australian Government
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