Page 13 - IAV Digital Magazine #472

iAV - Antelope Valley Digital Magazine
US Will Run Out of Avocados In Three Weeks if Trump Closes Mexico Border
US consumers would run out of avocados in three weeks if Donald Trump makes good on his threat to close down the US–Mexico bor- der.
Trump said on Friday that there was a “very good likelihood” he would close the border this week if Mexico did not stop immigrants from reaching the United States.
But a complete shutdown
would disrupt mil- lions of legal bor- der crossings in addition to asy- lum seekers, as well as billions of dollars in trade, about $137bn of which is in food imports.
From the avoca- dos on avocado toast, to the limes and tequila in margaritas, the US is heavily reliant on Mexican imports of fruit, vegeta- bles and alcohol to meet consumer demand.
Nearly half of all imported US veg- etables and 40% of imported fruit are grown in Mexico, according to the latest data from the United States Department of Agriculture.
Avocados would run out in three weeks if imports from Mexico were stopped, said Steve Barnard, president and chief executive of Mission Produce, the largest distrib- utor and grower of avocados in the world.
“You couldn’t pick
a worse time of year because Mexico supplies virtually 100% of the avocados in the US right now. California is just starting and they have a very small crop, but they’re not relevant right now and won’t be for another month or so,” said Barnard.
Monica Ganley, principal at Quarterra, a con- sultancy special- izing in Latin American agricul- tural issues and trade, said that a border closure would inevitably hit consumers.
“We’re absolutely going to see high- er prices. This is a very real and very relevant con- cern for American consumers.”
The US and Mexico trade about $1.7bn in goods daily, according to the US Chamber of Commerce, which said closing the border would be “an unmitigated economic deba- cle” that would threaten 5m American jobs.
The effects of a shutdown would run both ways.
Mexico is the largest importer of US exports of refined fuels like diesel and gaso- line, some of which moves by rail. It is unclear if rail terminals would be affected by closures.
As changing palates have increased demand for fresh produce, and a greater variety of it, the United States has increasingly come to depend on Mexico to meet that need.
Imports have
nearly tripled since 1999. In that period, Mexico has gone from supplying less than a third of imported pro- duce to 44% today.
In addition to avo- cados, the majori- ty of imported tomatoes, cucum- bers, blackberries and raspberries come from Mexico. While there are other producers of these goods glob- ally, opening those trade chan- nels would take time, said Ganley.
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