Page 17 - HW April 2020

stats watch
Statswatch Jan-Feb 2020
JANUARY-FEBRUARY 2020 numbers stack up OK but it’s less easy to predict a positive outlook...
• FebruarywasreasonablypositivefordebtbutMarchmaybea
di erentstory.
• GrowthslowsinDecemberquarter’svalueofbuildingwork
putinplace.
• Non-residentialdropimpactsFebconsents.
TOLERANCE WILL BE REQUIRED
February 2020’s stats from CreditWorks Data Solutions (www. creditworks.co.nz) show some positives following January turning out, as predicted, to be a tough month for collections.
CreditWorks’ General Manager, Alan Johnston, says of the numbers: “Surprisingly, DSOs improved slightly in February.
“Being a short month, with people still recovering from Christmas and their tax spend, traditionally we see a further weakening through February.
“Howeverthelevelofworkactivityintheindustrysawdebt/ salesrise,whilepaymentpro lesstrengthenedalittle.”
Lookingaheadalittle,theimpactofCOVID-19willbe signi cant, Alan continues: “Unfortunately, we know now that March is going to tell a whole di erent story, as we enter into economic hardship like we have never known before.
“Early indications suggest debt is being honoured in most instances, between merchants and suppliers, however customer payments have dried up considerably.
“ e coming months are going to see a lot of debt ageing and lower exposure levels (as non-essential building ceases).”
His outlook? “ e supply side of the industry is just going to have to be very tolerant in the coming months!”
GROWTH SLOWS IN VALUE OF BUILDING WORK
Released on 6 March, the December 2019 quarter’s Value of
building work put in place showed the actual value of building work rose once more, although overall growth was well down on thedoubledigitgrowthshowninthepreviousthreequarters:
• Residential:$4.2billion(+7.3%onDec2019quarter).
• Non-residential:$2.4billion(+8.9%). • Total:$6.6billion(+7.8%).
Byregion,growthintheactualvalueoftotalbuildingwork in the December 2019 quarter was led by Wellington (+14% on the Dec 2019 quarter), Rest of South Island (+13%), Auckland (+9.5%) and Waikato (+8.1%).
Residential building work grew across all regional areas in the December 2019 quarter, while non-residential building work rose in all but two regions (Rest of North Island and Canterbury).
Looking to the December year, growth across all building types was well up on the single digital growth shown in the previous year.
• Residential:$16.2billion(+9.3%onYTDDec2019).
• Non-residential:$9.3billion(+15.8%). • Total:$25.5billion(+11.6%).
e non-residential building types showing the most value growth nationally in the December 2019 year were: shops, restaurants & bars (+33%); accommodation (+39%); and storage buildings (+29%).
VALUE FALLS IN FEB CONSENT DATA
January 2020’s consent data from Stats NZ (www.stats.govt.
nz) were almost uniformly in the negative compared to January 2019, with the actual dwelling volume +2.7% but the overall value –1.4%.
In the February 2020 month, while the residential value grew, non-residential fell:
• Residential: $1.4 billion (+8.3% on Feb 2019).
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