Page 21 - HW September 2019

stats watch
Statswatch Jun-Jul 2019
AGAINWESEEpositivesandnegativesamongthekeyindicators. • BuoyantmarketdrivesJulydebtup.
• AucklandthestarinJuneconsents.
JULY DEBT GROWTH A POSITIVE
Aswewenttopresswiththelastissue,fullandfinaldataon debtandDSOsfortheJune2019monthfromCreditWorksData Solutions(www.creditworks.co.nz)weren’tavailable.
NowwehaveanupdateddatasetforJuneandnewdatafor the month of July which paints the picture of a market in robust health, despite an apparent spike in the level of debt on the CRISworksdatabase.
WithourregularcommentatorAlanJohnstontemporarily indisposed(getwellsoon!),RonnieTanreassuringlysaysthat the second highest ever debt figure seen on the CRISworks database is actually not reflective of debt blowing out but of growth in the number of customers on the database and of generally increased business.
CreditWorks expects to see this trend continue with continued high levels of activity on the marketplace, he adds, thankstohighlevelsofbuildingactivityandongoinggrowthin thehousingmarket.
Withothercommentatorshavingrecentlyexpressed pessimisticoutlooksontheconstructionindustry,what’s CreditWorks’forecast?
Withgrouphomebuyersstillreportingabuoyantmarket, Ronnie Tan’s outlook remains positive, for now at least...
HIGHS & LOWS IN JUNE CONSENTS
Consent data from Stats NZ (www.stats.govt.nz) for June 2019 andYTDJune2019releasedinlateJulyagainindicatesome slowingofintentionstobuild.
FortheJunemonth,non-residentialconsentstookanotherdive:
• Residential:$1.2billion(+6%onJune2018). • Non-residential:$503million(–5.1%).
• Totalbuilding:$1.7billion(+2.5%).
In terms of volume, in June 2,881 new dwellings were consented (+3.2% on June 2018), comprising:
• 1,653stand-alonehouses.
• 630townhouses,flats&units.
• 491apartments.
• 107retirementvillageunits.
Consent values for the year to date June 2019 also showed a softening of intent to build compared to previous years:
• Residential:$15billion(+5.7%onYTDJune2018).
• Non-residential:$7.4billion(+7.9%).
• Totalbuilding:$22.4billion(+6.4%).
Overall, 34,761 new dwellings were consented YTD June 2019 (+5.8% compared with the June 2018 year).
With multi-unit developments now accounting for around half of all new homes consented in Auckland, the City of Sales saw the highest ever number of new dwellings consented in a year, with the Waikato also seeing double digit growth:
• Auckland;14,032(+13%onYTDJune2018).
• Waikato:4,003(+15%).
• Wellington:2,655(–4.5%).
• RestofNorthIsland:5,527(–4.1%).
• Canterbury:4,959(–0.1%).
• RestofSouthIsland:3,578(+2.%).
Turning to non-residential consents, with Stats NZ noting a 4.6% increase in construction prices (as measured by the capital Goods Price Index), in the June 2019 year the non-residential building types with the highest values were:
• Shops,restaurants&bars:$1.1billion(+12%).
• Education:$1.1billion(–6.9%).
• Social,cultural&religious:$1.0billion(+54%).
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SEPTEMBER 2019 | NZHJ 19
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