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Washington Lobbyist Report
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST, POTENTIAL BALLOT INITIATIVES
NOVEMBER 2023 STATE QUARTERLY ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST
Yesterday (11/20) the state quarterly revenue forecast was released. Forecasted state revenue are increased for the current 2023-25 biennium by $191 million and increased by $579 million for the future 2025-27 biennium. Total state revenue is expect- ed to grow 3.3% between the 2021-23 and 2023-2025 biennia and 6.9% between the 2023-25 and 2025-2027 biennia.
Major economic factors driving the revenue forecast are Wash- ington’s personal income is stronger than in the September forecast, total Washington employment is stronger than in September, and inflation is slightly lower. After rising to 3.7% in August and September, inflation dropped to 3.2% in October. Even though inflation continues to trend downward it remains above desired levels. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the federal funds interest rate to a range of 5.5% to 5.75% in December but decrease rates more slowly than in September forecast.
Washington’s low unemployment rates continue to be a posi- tive economic factor as Washington employment has increased by 5,700 jobs since September and the Washington unemploy- ment rate remains low at 3.8%.
Downsides in the Washington economy are interest rates and the tightening of credit that threaten the commercial real estate market, business investment, and consumer demand.
The next state quarterly revenue forecast will be in mid-Febru- ary and serve as the baseline for supplemental budget propos- als from the House and Senate. The legislature will have until March 8th to pass an agreed to supplemental (2nd year of the biennium) budget.
POTENTIAL BALLOT INITIATIVES TO THE LEGISLATURE
Washington State has not had an initiative on the ballot since 2018, largely due to the COVID making it difficult for signature gathering. Let’s Go Washington, a new conservative political committee funded by hedge fund manager Brian Heywood, is in the process of qualifying six initiatives to the Legislature. The requirement to qualify an initiative to the Legislature is 324,516 valid signatures by December 29, 2023. If certified by the Sec- retary of State’s Office the initiative(s) would move to the Leg- islature for consideration during the 2024 Legislative Session. Upon receipt of a qualifying initiative, the 2024 Legislature will have one of three options:
• Adopt the initiative as proposed, allowing it to become law without a vote of the people;
• Not act on the initiative, allowing a vote of the people in the 2024 General Election; or
• Propose an alternative ballot measure dealing with the same subject, sending it and the original for a vote of the people in the 2024 General Election.
Representative and new Washington State Republican Party Chairman Jim Walsh (R-Aberdeen-19LD) is the prime sponsor
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