Page 34 - Cormorant Issue 20 2017

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BREXIT Re ections from Summer 2017 Wg Cdr James Hanson
operations, especially in the cyberspace domain. The creation of the League of Nations after the
First World War was an early attempt at a Rules Based International Order, succeeded by the
United Nations and now augmented by regional partnerships, of which the European Union and NATO are prime examples. The international student body expressed the opinion that the UK’s continued permanent presence on the United Nations Security Council may be called into question if the potential economic and outreach dividend from BREXIT
is not realised, but that the UK leaving the European Union was not a direct catalyst for challenging
the make-up of the Council. The opinion was
that the overriding objectives of the UK’s National Security Strategy, namely: ‘Protect our people’, ‘project our global in uence’ and ‘promote our prosperity’, remain relevant today to maintaining Britain’s position in the world and have taken on a more compelling importance.
IT WOULD BE A REASONABLE
observation that the United Kingdom’s
strategic landscape has changed signi cantly over the last year, and it has been intriguing to assess the
potential impact on UK
defence and security interests through the developing opinions of the
student body. In May 2017 a survey was conducted of a representative sample of the ACSC 20 student body to determine their opinion on the prospects for peace and security following the BREXIT vote and in light of international political developments. The opinions and commentary that follow do not represent the views of any national governments and they have not been attributed to individual students.
From March 2017, the perspective of the UK and international students on ACSC 20 re ected an overriding concern about international political uncertainty and economic stability and the effect this may have on security matters; whilst some students welcomed the relative stasis of European political alignment and the continued viability of the European Union, others were receptive to the change of leadership dynamics in the USA, particularly those students from the Middle East. Other students re ected on the potential for increased bilateral relations between France and Germany in light of
the election of Emmanuel Macron to the French Presidency and the expected re-election(!) of Angela Merkel to the German Presidency, possibly to the detriment of the UK’s in uence across Europe.
Continental scholars such as Matthias Matthijs have dismissed Britain’s prospects for throwing off the nancial and social burdens shared across European Union member states and highlights that inconclusive nancial negotiations may, in the short-term affect Britain’s ability to nance military spending, hinder exports and complicate collaborative programmes, especially in the realm of defence science and technology. This sentiment was re ected in the
views of the European students with a consensus
that the UK would continue to contribute to the
global defence industry, especially in services, space and communications. But in manufacturing, the
larger international defence conglomerates may be tempted to move development and manufacturing operations outside of the UK for reasons of employment status and tariffs. It can be inferred that the third order effect may be to reduce the UK’s in uence in global security matters and whilst not a direct hindrance to peace and stability, long standing UK engagement opportunities may become more dif cult.
With respect to European defence cooperation, Beatrice Heuser of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), writing about the future of the European defence and security mechanism, has lauded the mechanisms implemented after the Second World War which took Europe away
from the ‘balance of power game’ and steered a far more cooperative path. She recognises that technology, especially air power, had eroded the signi cance of borders as a factor in the parity of nations. It can perhaps be argued that today these boundaries are even less effective because of the connectivity of our systems and the pervasiveness of overt and deniable non-state and state actors
in electronic espionage, interference and in uence
“
From the perspective of peace and security in Europe, the weight of opinion was that BREXIT
and the recent Euro-Atlantic political developments did not represent a major challenge to European harmony. The public declaration that NATO remains a cornerstone of British defence cooperation and clarity from the USA over their commitment to
NATO were both welcomed. Concerns about security in Eastern Europe were not deemed to
be immediately impacted by BREXIT, though some students indicated that the potential for protracted European discord, especially during exit negotiations and onwards may be a distraction from presenting
a united European front, which should include the UK. A concern was expressed that Britain’s in uence in European defence cooperation may be reduced following BREXIT if the EU drove the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) towards a European Defence Force. The continual reaf rmation of Britain’s commitment to European defence by the UK government, typi ed by the UK’s position in March 2017 highlighting the need to strengthen CSDP and NATO cooperation across Europe was generally welcomed by the students; it also was
an overt demonstration of the UK’s contribution to
This sentiment
was re ected in the views of
the European students...
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