Page 25 - STRATEGY Magazine

The economic impact of Brexit
% difference in real UK GDP compared to remain scenario, by Brexit type
0 -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6%
-4.1%
-3.5%
FTA Scenario (Soft Brexit)
WTO Scenario (Hard Brexit)
2020
-3.1%
2025
2030
-1.1%
-1.2%
* FTA = Free Trade Agreement
WTO = World Trade Organization 'most-favored nation'
Brexit timeline
-5.5%
EU27 nominates lead negotiator and European Commission develops detailed Brexit mandate
May 2017: UK announces details of Great Repeal bill, repealing the 1972 European Communities Act
Basic principles of Brexit to be agreed upon between EU and UK
UK leaving EU must be ratified by EU27, the European Council, and the European Parliament
Mar
UK government triggers Article 50
2019 Oct
Apr
Brexit is
completed
Apr 29
Dec
Mar 2018
UK deadline for agreeing to transition deal
Negotiations to be completed by this date to allow for ratification by UK and EU before March 2019 deadline
2017
Mar 29
May Sep 24
May 7
German federal elections
The European Council EU27 group meets to agree to guidelines for Brexit negotiations
French presidential election results
SOURCE: IHS Market, Statista, PWC, CBI
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