Page 60 - WTP Vol. VIII#2

The Confidence Paradox:
Why Popular Views Are So Often Wrong
“Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.” —Introduction to The Decent of Man, Charles Darwin
“In the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” —The Triumph of Stupidity in Mortals and Others, Bertrand Russell
Angels and auras, glutens and GMOs, assault weap- ons and Amendment 2, healing crystals and pyramid power, transgenders and gene editing. We might think we know little or a lot about such topics, but what’s the objective reality behind all we believe we know about ourselves and the world?
One form of thinking about thinking, called metacog- nition, is the ability to step back and look with some objectivity at our own behavior and abilities, and to distinguish accurate judgment from error. Then again, is it really possible to be objective? A potential path
is through critical thinking, the intellectual process of analyzing and evaluating, then applying information from observation, experience, or reasoning as a guide to thought and action. An antagonist to objective and critical thought is belief, which often infuses emotion- al reactions such as fear, rather than logic, to distort what we suppose is true or untrue.
Growing up in the Midwestern U.S., I remember hear- ing people claim with emotional conviction the waters of then heavily polluted Lake Erie caused
polio whereas smoking carried health benefits, and America was deemed a unique land of peace and democracy. At the same time, more than a few politi- cians and newspaper headlines insisted communists had overrun Washington DC and Hollywood. Homo- sexuals were arrested as perverts who willfully chose their perversion, recruited and molested little boys, and flagrantly courted the wrath of The Almighty. On many emotional topics back then, little ambiguity tempered what folks believed and said. Oh, and by the way, let’s all have one more for the road, shall we?
People following the political news on TV and social media today might be forgiven for supposing self- doubt is in serious decline once again across the home of the brave, or at least at the United States Capitol, where certainty bores tunnels through cred- ibility. A national refrain these days seems to honor binary thinking. “I know what you don’t know. End of discussion.” A problem with this way of thinking is that those who think they know what they do not know, don’t know they don’t know it.
One way to help understand hollow certainty fueled by emotion plus a decline in objectivity centers on
a type of distorted reasoning called cognitive bias, which can take various forms. It’s not a question of whether we as individuals have any mental filters
or biases—and if we do, how abnormal we are—but rather how many and how strong are the biases within every one of us as part of the normal condi- tion of being human. Here’s an eye-opening proposi- tion about one type of cognitive bias. The more we actually know about the real world, the less confi- dent we tend to be in our beliefs and conclusions. Conversely, the less we know in a particular domain, the more confident we tend to be in our beliefs and conclusions. Two psychologists, David Dunning and Justin Kruger, published their research at Cornell University describing this paradox, especially the difficulties incompetent people have in recognizing their own incompetence.
The Dunning–Kruger effect, as it has become known, is a form of cognitive bias in which people of low abil- ity mis-calibrate their own ability and performance. They are convinced of their illusory superiority com- pared to others who are demonstrably superior, and they mistakenly overestimate their cognitive ability relative to objective criteria. People of relatively high ability however tend to disparage their ability. How
is it possible? One suggestion is that novices or low- ability people do not possess the skills to recognize their incompetence, or to put it in blunt terms, fools are blind to their own foolishness, so incompetent people do not realize how inept they really are. With only a simple idea of how things stand, the tendency is to be over-confident and unaware, and here’s the shocker: ignorance to the ignorant can feel just like expertise. Furthermore, those with narrow vision seek and adore certainty but often don’t receive or incorporate much feedback. Thus, the tendency to believe, “I’m right and you’re wrong, so just be quiet.”
Perhaps someone in the public sphere comes to mind? Or maybe someone in your private life fits the bill?
A related bias mechanism operates in the opposite
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