Page 7 - 2016 Las Vegas Residential Real Estate Report

HOME SALES
EXISTING
Previously owned homes have had two years of sequential growth with 41,720 homes selling in 2016, up nearly eight percent from 2015. This was nearly double the rate of the 2007 low but remains below the 2009-2012 period that was heavily in uenced by investors and distressed sales.
What makes 2016 interesting is that this sales pace was produced despite relatively low supply, which was less than three months. For much of the year, demand and supply appear to have been quite balanced, otherwise we would have seen price increases through most of the year. Instead, we observe that most of 2016’s price increases took place in a handful of months, signifying ampli ed demand in the months prior to those closing dates. As we head into 2017, available single-family inventory sits at just over two months of supply. Supply in the most affordable segments are even below two months and condominiums that are priced below $150,000 are at extreme lows of just 1.4 months of supply.
EXISTING HOME SALES
drivers licenses, an indicator of in-migration, reached levels not seen since before the recession began, with nearly 69,000 surrenders. This was shy of the 75,000 licenses surrendered in 2007. In 2016, 7,715 more licenses were surrendered than in 2015.
Another measure of migration is United Van Lines’ survey, which tracks state-to-state migration patterns. Nevada was the ninth highest inbound state for movers in 2016, just ahead of Arizona and one notch below North Carolina. Since United Van Lines is a moving company, this is a good indicator of households that are likely to also be purchasers of homes or renters of single-family homes.7
NEVADA WAS THE NINTH HIGHEST STATE FOR INBOUND MOVES IN 2016
IRS data also points towards inbound migration, with more people ling in Clark County than leaving and ling elsewhere. Clearly all of these data sources are pointing towards a growing Las Vegas, as such, we are seeing vacancy rates decline.
After peaking above 10 percent in 2011, vacancy rates have gradually declined to 3.2% for single family homes. Although this level still exceeds that of the early 2000’s, it’s a far cry from all of the unlit homes we toured during the recession.
Source: GLVAR, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Based on some leading and lagging indicators of migration, we anticipate that demand for housing will remain at least at 2016 levels, barring any negative economic shocks. In 2016, surrendered
7. https://www.unitedvanlines.com/contract-united/news/movers-study-2016