Page 74 - Regional Employment & Skills Plan 2019

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The world is changing rapidly, meaning of course that significant change is on the horizon for Wales and subsequently the region of South West and Mid Wales. What we do as a region with those changes depends on our level of preparedness to mitigate the challenges and capitalise on the opportunities.
4.1 Population
Global population levels are on the rise and are projected to continue to rise for the foreseeable future. The UK is projected to become the largest country in Europe (with the exception of Russia) over the next fifty years.73 The population of Wales is also projected to continue to increase by around 4% over the next twenty years which translates to a total population of approximately 3.25 million people by 2036.
Many factors are contributory to this and include an increasing fertility rate, high life expectancy and increasing levels of migration. For the region the growth in population can mostly be attributed to the increasingly ageing population where a growing proportion of the population are aged over 65. Projections indicate that by 2041 the proportion of those aged over 65 will have increased by 37% (compared with figures for 2017), coupled with a decreasing working age population (16-64). Further to this, the same projections indicate that over the next ten years those aged 80 and over are expected to increase by over 25% and by over 80% over the next twenty five years.74
From a regional perspective based on current trends projections indicate that Neath Port Talbot, Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire and Swansea will see increases in their population whilst Powys and Pembrokeshire will see decreases to 2039.
Sectors Likely to Be Affected Most
Health and Social Care
A higher life expectancy and an ageing population will inevitably increase the pressure on health and social care services. A study conducted by the Health Foundation indicates that the cost of care increases significantly with age, and rising activity along with rising costs adds up to significant pressures. An index of spending for individual treatment areas suggests that non-elective treatments, community care and elective treatments will see the largest compound annual growth to 2030 compared with ‘maternity’ that is unsurprisingly expected to see the smallest growth.
If trends continue there will be a decrease in respiratory illnesses, arthritis and heart conditions but a significant increase in the prevalence of dementia. According to a recent study as the number of older people is projected to increase there could be 50,000 people aged 65 or over living with dementia in Wales, with nearly 25% being aged 90 or over.75
Construction
Demographic change will influence housing demand, particularly when combined with changes in household composition. In Wales the number of households is projected (2014-based) to grow faster than the population between 2016 and 2039. This inevitably increases demand on the construction and engineering sectors. The number of 1 person households is projected to increase more than (and overtake) the number of 2-person households. Estimates of housing need indicate that we need an average of 8,300 houses each year for the next five years. By the mid 2030’s, it is estimated that up to 6,500 additional housing units will be required annually.
73 UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs
74 https://www.slideshare.net/StatisticsWales/welsh-government-future-trends-2017-population
Regional Employment & Skills Plan South West & Mid Wales
Aspirational Projects and Key Developments