Page 1 - Market Outlook Q3 2024

Economic Overview
Q3, 2024
NTDA MARKET
Federal Reserve Projected to Cut Rates by
25 Basis Points at Next Two Meetings

The U.S. Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on Nov. 7,
according to all 111 economists in a Reuters poll published Oct. 20, 2024. More than a
90% majority predict another quarter-percentage-point move in December.
OUTLOOK
Since the U.S. Central Bank kicked off its long-awaited easing cycle last month with a
half-percentage-point reduction in the federal funds rate to a 4.75%–5.00% range, news
on the economy has been strong, including consumer spending and jobs data.
Fannie Mae’s Take on Consumer Spending

Fannie Mae’s recent outlook shows stronger consumer spending prospects, driven by
unexpected job growth and revised income data. This optimism led them to raise their
forecast for U.S. economic growth slightly as they now predict GDP will grow by 2.3% in
2024 and 2.0% in 2025, up from previous estimates.

In the housing market, home price expectations have been adjusted. While prices grew a
bit slower than previously thought over the past year, Fannie Mae now expects them to
rise by 5.8% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025. Home sales are also projected to increase slightly,
with 4.77 million total sales expected in 2024, rising to 5.24 million in 2025, though high
mortgage rates could impact this growth.

For mortgages, 2023 originations have been revised upward by $33 billion due to new
data. The 2024 outlook remains steady at $1.67 trillion, while 2025 projections are slightly
reduced to $2.14 trillion. Overall, the updated forecast reflects a stronger consumer and
housing outlook but keeps an eye on potential rate-related challenges.

Continued on Page 3

THIS ISSUE…

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N DA 07–08 S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI®
Federal Reserve Projected to Cut Rates by
25 Basis Points at Next Two Meetings
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