Page 1 - Market Outlook Q4 2024

Economic Overview
Q4, 2024
NTDA MARKET
Federal Reserve Projected to Reduce Interest
Rates at Slower Pace in 2025

The Federal Reserve (Fed) recently cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points
but signaled a slower pace of rate reductions in the future. This decision caused U.S.
bond yields to rise, equity prices to decline, and the U.S. dollar to strengthen against
major currencies. The Fed’s projections for 2025 now indicate higher interest rates (3.9%)
OUTLOOK
and inflation (2.5%) compared to earlier estimates, reflecting expectations of a stronger
economy and tighter monetary policy. Despite decelerating wage growth, the Fed
remains cautious, attributing higher inflation expectations to economic strength and
potential policy changes from the incoming administration, such as tax cuts and tariffs.
Impact on Markets
• Futures Markets: The probability of unchanged rates in January rose significantly,
influencing equity and bond price movements.
• Currency Markets: The U.S. dollar’s strength caused volatility globally:

• Brazil: The currency fell to a record low, with inflationary pressures prompting the
central bank to sell reserves and raise interest rates.
• China: The central bank intervened to stabilize the renminbi (the official currency
of the People’s Republic of China), aiming to avoid inflation, trade tensions, and
setbacks to its global currency ambitions.
Fed Chair Powell’s Statements
Powell highlighted that while the labor market is normalizing, it hasn’t fully stabilized,
and a “soft landing” for the economy hasn’t been achieved. He also noted that while
productivity gains could influence future rate cuts, their sustainability is uncertain.
Generative AI’s potential productivity benefits are expected in the long term.
U.S. Retail Sales
Retail sales grew strongly in November, largely driven by automobile purchases, which
saw a 2.6% monthly increase. Excluding autos, retail sales grew modestly (0.2% monthly
increase). Online retailing experienced robust growth, up 9.8% year-over-year, indicating
a shift in holiday shopping patterns. However, spending in categories like department
stores, groceries, and clothing saw slow or negative growth.

THIS ISSUE…

N DA PAGE S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI®
Employment Rises Amid Improved Business Confidence
07
NATIONAL TRAILER DEALERS ASSOCIATION
Trailer Orders Canada Wholesale Sales
NATIONAL TRAILER DEALERS ASSOCIATION 70000 50.00%
9864 E. Grand River Ave. 60000 40.00%
Ste. 110-290 50000 30.00%
40000
Brighton, MI 48116 30000 20.00%
20000 10.00%
Direct Dial: (810) 229-5960 10000 0.00%
Toll-free: (800) 800-4552 0 -10.00% Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
www.ntda.org Jan Feb March April May June 2023 July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2024 2023 2022
2022
2024
US ECONOMIC CANADA ECONOMIC
facebook.com/ntdaonline SNAPSHOT SNAPSHOT
www.linkedin.com/company/ PAGES 12–30
national-trailer-dealers-association/ PAGES 32–34

ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION: The articles and data provided herein are strictly intended as informational. The NTDA is not
registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (nor with the securities regulatory
Member Pricing: Included with Membership authority or body of any state or any other jurisdiction) as an investment adviser, broker-
Non-Member Pricing: $89 dealer, or in any other capacity, and does not purport to provide investment advice or make
investment recommendations. You should not construe this newsletter as an offer to buy or sell,
as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or as a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or trade, any
security or other financial instrument.