Page 9 - The Black Range Naturalist Vol. 4, No. 3

Patagonia Picnic Table Effect
The fabled Patagonia Picnic Table Effect may be just that, a fable. The fabled fable originated in the 1960’s when birders flocking to the picnic area just east of Patagonia, Arizona, to see a Rose- throated Becard began to find all sorts of other rare birds. From that, the idea that the number of observers was tied to the number of rarities observed originated. Jesse Laney, et al*, at Oregon State University, reviewed the records associated with 273 sightings of “mega- rarities” and found that there is “little evidence for improvement in discovery rates of additional rare birds” when birders migrate to the site of a rare bird sighting.
A summary of the subject article argued that the research debunked the “hot hands” effect, that fable of probability which is well understood. The article does not make that specific claim, and I have never heard that explanation for the Patagonia Effect. I have always
understood the effect to be caused by: 1) more people see more birds; and 2) the underlying (usually weather) conditions which contributed to the presence of the initial rare bird potentially apply to other rare birds. Both of these factors may be true in any particular case but appear to be trumped by the general findings.
Most of the article addresses birder behavior, what motivates birders, what influences their decision to flock to a rare bird site, and for what length of time that behavior continues. It is well done and informative.
Anyone who is interested in the socio- economics of birding should delve into this article in detail. The economics of birding and birdwatching are certainly documented in many sources, but this particular study goes into much more detail about what the draw is, how long it lasts, and what influences its magnitude. These factors have a direct economic effect on communities which attempt to exploit this particular study of
natural history for their economic benefit.
This study addresses the factors associated with “rare bird sightings”, not with the sustained economic advantages associated with offering a “natural experience” of some type. However, when a community provides for natural history experiences and enjoys the sustained economic benefits associated with that offering, it is more likely to enjoy the periodic jump in economic activity associated with the sighting of a rare bird.
A multifaceted economic development program, which includes natural history programs, provides sustainable long- term benefits to communities.
*The influence of rare birds on observer effort and subsequent rarity discovery in the American birdwatching community. Jesse A. Laney, Tyler A. Hallman, Jenna R. Curtis, and W. Douglas Robinson, PeerJ - Life and Environment, January 21, 2021. Graph below, from the article.
Figure 1: Hypothesized behavioral dynamics of birders when rare species are discovered. Dashed green line represents birding effort when rarities have been discovered, including the draw following initial report of rarity and the decay in effort over time. Dashed orange line represents the baseline birding effort at a given location. Northern Lapwing silhouette clipart ©Adobe Stock. Birder silhouette clipart
source: https://openclipart.org/detail/222259/lady-spotting-scope.
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