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as saying on October 1. "This stagnation continues, and this budget supports it."
According to the politician, the document does not solve the problem of bringing the economy out of the shadows, as it allegedly contains no provisions on deoffshorisation and legalisation. "This is a budget of poverty, extreme poverty," Tymoshenko added. "If you compare gross domestic income per capita that is proposed by this budget in dollar terms, then it is almost 27% lower than it was in 2013."
Ukraine's state budget revenue rose 15.2% year-on-year to UAH675bn ($24bn), which is 2.7% below plan , the State Treasury provisionally reported on October 1.
Net tax revenue increased 16.0% y/y to UAH286bn (0.7% above plan), while customs revenue rose 11.8% y/y to UAH240bn (1.5% below plan). Other budget revenue surged three times y/y to UAH81.bn (14.2% below plan).
"An earlier harvest this year resulted in a seasonal shift in exports by Ukraine’s agricultural producers. This produced a significant y/y jump in September VAT reimbursement, slowing the growth of net tax receipts," Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote in a note on October 4.
"Meanwhile, relatively high growth in customs revenue helped budget revenue reach plan in September. If customs revenue growth is maintained throughout the fourth quarter of 2018, the state budget revenue plan is likely to be fulfilled," she added.
In September alone, net tax revenue increased 4.3% y/y (vs. 8.8% growth in August) to UAH24.8bn, which is 4.4% below plan. The slower growth of net tax revenue was due to increased VAT reimbursement, which jumped 28.9% y/y in September (vs. 4.0% y/y growth in August).
Customs revenue increased 16.9% y/y to UAH30.5bn in September, which is 1.1% above plan.
6.1.1 Budget dynamics - specific issues...
The IMF predicts a growing deficit of the consolidated budget of Ukraine in the next two years . According to IMF estimates, the budget deficit this year will amount to 2.5% of GDP, in 2019 - 2.6% of GDP. It then it is expected to decline to 2.3% of GDP in 2020, to 2.2% of GDP in 2021, to 2.2% of GDP in 2022 and up to 2.1% of GDP in 2023.
The IMF estimates revenue to the consolidated budget in 2018 at 40.5% of GDP while spending 43% of GDP . The forecast for 2019 implies growth in budget revenues to 40.7% of GDP and at the same time expenditures to 43.3% of GDP, in 2020 it will decline to 40.2% of GDP and 42.5% of GDP, respectively, for 2021 - to 39.8% of GDP and 42.1% of GDP, respectively, for 2022 - up to 39.6% of GDP and 41.7% of GDP, respectively, after, which, in 2023, a slight increase is expected - revenues - to 39.8% of GDP, expenditures - to 41.8% of GDP.
The Cabinet of Ministers has allocated UAH55bn, or $1.95bn, in subsidies for households in the draft budget of Ukraine for 2019, which exceeds the current actual figure and, which is enough to provide low-income families in Ukraine with targeted financial aid. This year, the number of Ukrainian
39 UKRAINE Country Report November 2018 www.intellinews.com