Page 44 - UKRRptNov18

6.2 Debt
DEBT 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E*
External debt (US$bn, 80 101.7 103.4 117.3 126.2 134.6 142.1 126.3 118.7 113.6 124.2 eop)
External debt (% of 55.8 55.3 91 86.1 77.4 77.3 79.1 96.2 130.4 121.7 126.6 ann'd GDP, eop)
FX reserves (US$bn, 32.5 31.5 26.5 34.6 31.8 24.5 20.4 7.5 12.4 11.9 15.6 eop)
FX reserves (% of 22.6 17.2 23.3 25.4 19.5 14.1 11.4 5.7 13.6 12.8 13.3 ann'd GDP, eop)
External debt / FX 2.5 3.2 3.9 3.4 4 5.5 7 17.7 9.6 9.5 8.0 reserves (x, eop)
FX reserves imports 5.6 3.9 5.9 6 4.1 2.9 2.5 1.3 3.3 3.6 3.3 cov (months)
Source: ICU
Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt slid 0.3% month-on-month to $74.7bn in September due to reduced domestic debt, the nation’s Finance Ministry reported on October 26. Domestic debt dropped 0.4% m/m to $26.7bn, while foreign debt stayed unchanged at $37.9bn. State-guaranteed debt declined 0.6% m/m to $10.1bn.In hryvnia terms, the state debt declined 0.2% m/m, with domestic and guaranteed debts shrinking 0.4% m/m and 0.5% respectively, and foreign debt staying the same. In September, state debt amounted to 70.8% of Ukraine’s 2017 GDP.
Ukraine must pay over $3bn on external commercial, guaranteed commitments in Q4 2018 , the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has reported on its website. The central bank said that $2.529bn to be transferred to repay the principal amount of the debt and $483mn is interest. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the country is to pay $568mn as direct debt (including $466mn in repayment of the principal of the debt), in the first quarter of 2019 - $1.162bn ($527mn), in the second quarter - $1.655bn ($1.491bn), in the third quarter - $1.889bn ($1.249bn) and the fourth quarter - $298mn ($163mn). The total amount of payments on Ukraine's gross external debt in the fourth quarter of 2018 was estimated at $4.809bn (including $3.973bn in repayment of the principal of the debt), in the first quarter of 2019 - $3.688bn ($2.528bn), in the second - $3.345bn ($2.912bn) in the third - $3.528bn ($2.445bn) and the fourth quarter - $1.697bn ($1.18bn).
44 UKRAINE Country Report November 2018 www.intellinews.com