Page 18 - UKRRptOct19
P. 18

              3.0​ ​Macro Economy
   Business cycle indicators
     2008
   2009
   2010
   2011
   2012
   2013
   2014
   2015
   2016
 2017
     2018E
  2019E
 Real GDP, chg yoy
  2.3%
     -14.8%
      4.1%
      5.2%
      0.2%
      0.0%
      -6.6%
      -9.8%
      2.3%
    2.5%
    3.3%
    2.70%
   Household consumption, chg yoy
    11.8%
 -14.9%
 7.1%
 15.7%
 8.4%
 6.9%
 -8.3%
 -20.7%
 1.8%
7.8%
    8.9%
 4.90%
   Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
      1.6%
    -50.5%
    3.9%
    7.1%
    5.0%
    -6.7%
    -24.0%
    -9.2%
    20.1%
 18.2%
      14.3%
   7.00%
   Industrial output, chg yoy
      -5.2%
    -21.9%
    11.2%
    8.0%
    -0.7%
    -4.3%
    -10.1%
    -13.0%
    2.8%
 0.4%
      1.1%
   2.50%
 Nominal GDP, UAH bln
  948
     913
      1,079
      1,300
      1,405
      1,465
      1,587
      1,989
      2,383
    2,983
    3,559
    4,021
   Nominal GDP, USD bln
    180
 117
 136
 163
 176
 183
 134
 91
 93
112
    131
 146
   GDP per capita, USD
      3,891
    2,550
    2,972
    3,580
    3,865
    4,030
    3,117
    2,134
    2,193
 2,638
      3,077
   3,336
 CPI (eop)
  22.3%
     12.3%
      9.1%
      4.6%
      -0.2%
      0.5%
      24.9%
      43.3%
      12.4%
    13.7%
    9.8%
    7.10%
   CPI average
 25.2%
   15.9%
    9.4%
    8.0%
    0.6%
    -0.3%
    12.1%
    48.7%
    13.9%
  14.4%
  10.90 %
  8.20%
  Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
 6.9%
  9.6%
   8.9%
   8.7%
   8.2%
   7.8%
   9.7%
   9.5%
   9.7%
 9.9%
  9.1%
 8.00%
           Source: SP Advisors
3.1 ​Macroeconomic overview
Ukraine’s real GDP rose 4.6% y/y in 2Q19,​ or 1.6% qoq on a seasonally adjusted basis, to UAH928bn ($34.9bn), the State Statistics Service reported on September 18, confirming its preliminary estimate. The acceleration in economic growth (from 2.5% y/y 1Q19) was mostly due to advancement in private consumption, which swelled 11.8% y/y (vs. 10.7% y/y growth in 1Q19).
Meanwhile, investment growth slowed to 7.9% y/y (vs. 17.4% y/y growth in 1Q19). The contribution of net exports to GDP remained negative as import volume exceeded export volume. Real export growth slowed to 4.4% y/y (vs. 6.8% y/y growth in 1Q19) while imports accelerated to 9.1% y/y (vs. 6.5% y/y growth in 1Q19).
On the production side, stronger GDP growth in 2Q19 was mostly due to accelerated value-added growth in agriculture (7.3% y/y in 2Q19 vs. 3.4% y/y in 1Q19), and mining (3.5% y/y growth in 2Q19 vs. 0.4% y/y in 1Q19). In addition, the value added in manufacturing increased 0.8% y/y (vs. a 1.3% y/y decline in 1Q19).
The value added in construction continued to grow at high rates, though cooling to 20.5% y/y (vs. 26.5% y/y in 1Q19).
The GDP deflator amounted to 9.4% in 2Q19 (vs. 11.7% in 1Q19).
Evgeniya Akhtyrko: “Surging private consumption was the major driving force of accelerated growth in 2Q19. Meanwhile, investment growth slowed down. Moreover, the negative contribution of net exports to GDP was reinforced by
18​ UKRAINE Country Report​ October 2019 ​ ​www.intellinews.com
   16   17   18   19   20