Page 21 - UKRRptDec18

3.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Business cycle indicators
Real GDP, chg yoy
2.3%
-14.8%
4.1%
5.2%
0.2%
0.2%
-6.6%
-9.8%
2.3%
2.2%
Household consumption, chg yoy
11.8%
-14.9%
7.1%
15.7%
11.7%
7.7%
-9.6%
-20.2%
4.5%
4.0%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
1.6%
-50.5%
3.9%
7.1%
0.9%
-6.7%
-23.0%
-9.3%
6.0%
12.0%
Industrial output, chg yoy
-5.2%
-21.9%
11.2%
8.0%
-0.7%
-4.3%
-10.1%
-13.0%
2.1%
-0.1%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
948
913
1,079
1,300
1,405
1,465
1,587
1,979
2,351
2,755
Nominal GDP, USD bln
180
117
136
163
176
183
134
91
93
98
GDP per capita, USD
3,891
2,550
2,972
3,580
3,865
4,030
2.904
1,996
1,991
2,314
CPI (eop)
22.3%
12.3%
9.1%
4.6%
-0.2%
0.5%
24.9%
43.3%
12.4%
13.7%
CPI average
25.2%
15.9%
9.4%
8.0%
0.6%
-0.3%
12.1%
48.7%
14.9%
14.5%
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
6.9%
9.6%
8.9%
8.7%
8.2%
7.8%
9.7%
9.7%
9.7%
9.3%
Source: SP Advisors
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Ukraine post-collapse economic recovery seems to have stalled after economy growth stumbled, expanding by only 2.8% y/y in the third quarter, down from 3.8% in the second quarter and 3.1% in the first, Ukrstat reported on November 14. Growth does even worse when adjusted for seasonal differences with an expansion of only 0.4%
Ukraine has been climbing out of a deep recession when the economy contracted by a massive 17% in the first quarter of 2015. Growth went positive again in the second quarter of 2016 seemed to be gathering some momentum over the first two quarters of this year, only to stumble in the third. Moreover, the prognosis has been deteriorating with the IMF recently downgrading Ukraine’s outlook. The fund left its full year estimate for growth in 2018 at 3.5% but downgraded its forecast for 2019 to an unimpressive 2.7% from 3.3% earlier.
In October the World Bank also worsened the forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2018 to 3.3% from 3.5% and in 2019 to 3.5% from 4%
“The Ukrainian economy has been growing 11 quarters in a row ... The
21 UKRAINE Country Report December 2018 www.intellinews.com