Page 23 - RusRPTAug20

2.8 ​Politics - misc
The New York Times reported on June 3 that a CIA memo admits that intelligence agencies have “no evidence” that payments made by the Russian foreign military intelligence GRU to Afghan fighters were bounties ​for killing US soldiers in Afghanistan. The memo goes on to admit that it has “circumstantial evidence” of payments made to fighters, but they are fringe groups fighting in Afghanistan and not official representatives of the Taliban.
The US is unlikely to slap sanctions on the Russian government’s ruble bond market despite an escalation in tensions​, according to the biggest American trade group in Moscow. There are currently no bills in the works that call for penalties on Russia’s local debt market, which is about 30% owned by foreigners, according to Alex Rodzianko, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Moscow. The idea resurfaced in a report published last month by the Republican Study Committee, but is unlikely to get much further than that, he said. “Speaking to my colleagues in Washington - they’re not too concerned at this point that this will find its way into the legal code,” Rodzianko said by phone on June 7.
The US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, announced at a press conference on July 16 that investors into Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream projects could face sanctions​ under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act of 2017 (CAATSA), Refinitiv reports. According to the WSJ, this announcement might set in motion an amendment to CAATSA that will subject Nord Stream 2 to section 232 of the law (it is currently exempt from CAATSA). This section might allow the US to sanction entities and individuals, which invest $1mn at once, or $5mn over a year, into the project, or contribute technology, services or other support to its completion. Kommersant reports that these sanctions might be enforced retroactively. Expanding CAATSA to cover Nord Stream 2 comes on top of the recent sanctions proposal and might present further risks to the completion of the project. The construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline might resume as soon as at the beginning of August, while the amendments to CAATSA are not yet certain, nor has the timeline for it been announced. We anticipate more news on this topic.
Researchers who study Russia’s electoral statistics believe the recent nationwide plebiscite on constitutional amendments is the most dishonest vote the country has seen in 20 years.​ According to statisticians, their “tests” have revealed a number of red flags that support these claims. From a statistical point of view, the official results in many precincts can’t be attributed to fair voting processes. Researchers say the only explanation is that officials responsible for tallying the votes somehow changed the results. According to official data from Russia’s Central Election Commission, a little more than half of the country’s eligible voters supported the changes to the Constitution. If you exclude all of the “excess” votes from precincts that don’t pass statistical “tests,” however, it turns out that fewer than a third of Russia’s voters supported the amendments.
Russia will retaliate with sanctions on the UK after the Foreign Affairs Minister Dominic Raab announced Magnitsky Act-style measures against individuals in Russia​, Saudi Arabia, Myanmar and North Korea, according to the Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov. The UK will sanction laundering of
23​ RUSSIA Country Report​ August 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com