Page 17 - UKRRptSept18

3.2 Macro outlook
Based on an exchange rate of about UAH30 to dollar in 2019 forecasts, as well as the expected growth rates of real GDP by 3% in 2018 and 2019, and by 3.8% in 2020, the Ministry of Finance expects the growth of Ukraine's nominal GDP in dollars from $106.3bn last year to $110.7bn this year, $134.2bn next year, and $147.4bn in 2020.
Ukraine: Key economic figures and forecasts
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 116.9 135.2 135.3 99.9 81.4 78.3 84.8
Nominal GDP per capita (EUR) 2,573 2,987 3,341 2,332 1,904 1,737 1,994
Real GDP (% yoy) 5.5 0.2 0 -6.6 -9.8 2.3 2.0
Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) 8 0.6 -0.2 12.1 48.7 14.9 14.5
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 8.7 8.2 7.8 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.3
General budget balance (% of -1.8 -3.8 -4.4 -4.9 -2.3 -3.5 -3 GDP)
Public debt (% of GDP) 36.4 37.1 40.7 52.9 72.6 81.3 84.9
Current account balance (% of -6.3 -8.2 -9.2 -3.5 -0.2 -3.7 -5.2 GDP)
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 77.6 76.5 79.3 95.2 131.5 142.9 142.5
EUR/LCY (avg) 11 10 11 16 24 30 31
Source: national sources, wiiw, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
4.0 Real Economy
Ukraine - GDP growth breakdown 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (UAH mn)
Jan-Sep 2017
Annual GDP y/y growth
5.20
0.20
0.00
-6.80
-9.90
2.30
2.18
GDP per capita
3,569.76
3,855.42
4,029.72
3,082.46
2,125
2,186
/
Final consumption expenditure
1,094,231
1,221,163
1,337,048
1,410,177
1,715,636
2,018,854
1,754,681
Gross fixed investment capital formation
291,678
305,031
262,257
220,563
262,917
361,030
297,406
Exports
647,608
670,319
629,392
770,121
1,044,541
1,174,625
1,035,476
Imports
733,526
791,844
763,499
834,133
1,084,016
1,323,127
1,146,747
Source: CEIC
17 UKRAINE Country Report September 2018 www.intellinews.com