Page 33 - UKRRptSept18

"Meanwhile, revenue flows remain very uneven. Some improvement in tax collection was offset by essential declines in non-tax revenue," she wrote in a note on August 30. "A significant drop in income from ownership and entrepreneurship point to the weak position of small and medium business in Ukraine." It will get "risky economically “to maintain this high pace of budget expenditures amid shaky revenue, Akhtyrko added. The expert believes that the January-July general budget balance seems to have been in satisfactory shape, but growing public spending - particularly ahead of elections - could harm fiscal stability quickly.
The deficit of Ukraine's national budget in January-July 2018 was estimated at UAH13.356bn ($479mn), against a surplus at UAH27.003bn ($968mn) y/y. The country's consolidated budget over the period under review saw a surplus of UAH7.517bn ($269.5mn), which was 85.7% down on the surplus of UAH52.820bn ($1.9bn) y/y, according to Ukraine's Treasury Service.
The deficit of Ukraine's national budget in 2017 was estimated at UAH47.850bn ($1.7bn), which was 33.4% down against 2016.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine for 2018 is capped at UAH80.6bn ($2.9bn), or 2.4% of GDP.
Ukrainian budget receipts were almost $430mn below target or 3% less than the planned tax take , as of August 1 but are up year-on-year, reports the Ministry of Finance on July 31.
The state budget of Ukraine in January-July 2018 received UAH513.468bn
in revenues, which is UAH15.791bn ($429mn), or 3%, below target for the said period.
Net tax revenue jumped 13.3% y/y to UAH216.0bn (1.1% above plan), while customs revenue rose 10.0% y/y to UAH179.2bn (2.7% below plan).
In July alone, net tax revenue surged 37.0% to UAH25.8bn, which is 1.7% above plan. Meanwhile, customs revenue picked up 17.7% y/y to UAH29.1bn, which is 0.2% above plan.
Local budgets’ 7M18 revenue increased 15.6% y/y to UAH132.5bn, outperforming plan by 1.7%. Social payments (personal income tax and pension fund contributions paid by employers) jumped 27.5% y/y to UAH126.8bn.
All-in-all tax receipts were still more than last year’s : state budget revenues this January-July increased by 14.7% y/y, or UAH65.770bn ($1.75bn) more than in the same period in 2017, according to the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
The state budget of Ukraine for 2018 set a revenue target at UAH917.9bn
($34.9bn) and expenditures – at UAH991.7bn ($37.7bn), with the deficit ceiling set at UAH80.6bn ($3.07bn), or 2.4% of GDP.
“Customs revenue continues to show significant month-to-month swings, confirming our suspicion of the “tightening the screws” tactic being employed,” Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concorde Capital said in a note. “Meanwhile, permanent improvement in automated customs collection is impossible without systemic elimination of widespread corruption in this state structure. That said, budget revenue is likely to meet the annual plan due to outperformance of tax collections,” adds Akhtyrko.
33 UKRAINE Country Report September 2018 www.intellinews.com