Page 39 - UKRRptSept18

6.2 Debt
DEBT 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E*
External debt (US$bn, 80 101.7 103.4 117.3 126.2 134.6 142.1 126.3 118.7 113.6 124.2 eop)
External debt (% of 55.8 55.3 91 86.1 77.4 77.3 79.1 96.2 130.4 121.7 126.6 ann'd GDP, eop)
FX reserves (US$bn, 32.5 31.5 26.5 34.6 31.8 24.5 20.4 7.5 12.4 11.9 15.6 eop)
FX reserves (% of 22.6 17.2 23.3 25.4 19.5 14.1 11.4 5.7 13.6 12.8 13.3 ann'd GDP, eop)
External debt / FX 2.5 3.2 3.9 3.4 4 5.5 7 17.7 9.6 9.5 8.0 reserves (x, eop)
FX reserves imports 5.6 3.9 5.9 6 4.1 2.9 2.5 1.3 3.3 3.6 3.3 cov (months)
Source: ICU
Ukraine’s state debt slid 0.8% month-on-month to $75.7bn in July,
according to the nation's Finance Ministry. Domestic debt declined 2.5% m/m to $27.9bn, while foreign debt was practically flat $37.5bn. In UAH terms, the state debt increased 1.4%, with foreign debt rising 2.2% to UAH1,004bn and domestic debt sliding 0.4% to UAH747bn. In July, state debt amounted to 68% of Ukraine’s 2017 GDP. Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital believes believes that the increase of foreign debt in UAH terms was due to a 0.8% hryvnia depreciation during July. "Domestic debt in UAH terms did not change significantly, as the amount of local bonds redeemed during the month was close to the amount of newly issued local debt," she wrote in a note on August 30. Concorde projects that the state debt will rise to $78.2bn
(67.6% of GDP) in 2018, assuming that Kyiv's cooperation with the International Monetary fund (IMF) is maintained. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects to obtain a new tranche from the nation's main lender, the IMF, by the end of autumn. The statement followed the adoption of amendments to the new law necessary for establishing the nation's anti-corruption court, which is a key condition for a new tranche from the support programme. Alongside the anti-corruption court legislation, two other requirements have been demanded by the IMF before it restarts its programme. Specifically, the Ukrainian government should increase the gas price for households, and the finance ministry should take measures to ensure that the 2018 budget deficit will not exceed the planned level. An IMF mission will make a working visit to Kyiv from September 6 to September 19 to discuss the country’s crucial but stalled $17.5bn stand by package. According to the multinational lender, the mission will also discuss next steps, including financial assistance from the IMF in support of policies to maintain macroeconomic stability and keep the economy on a path toward sustainable and inclusive growth. The new IMF funding is crucially important for Ukraine, which is running out of cash and has large bond repayments to make this autumn and next year. Sovereign external
39 UKRAINE Country Report September 2018 www.intellinews.com