Page 7 - UKRRptSept18

IMF program is on track. The statement from the IMF visit in late September will be a key milestone to watch.
2.0 Politics
2.1 Tymoshenko leading the polls
Seven Ukrainian political parties are likely to clear the 5% threshold to win seats in next year’s parliamentary elections and two of those are in contention to lead the government, according to a poll by the Ratings pollster, released on August 7.
Opposition leader and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) Party is currently leading the polls. Tymoshenko is also the front-runner in the concurrent presidential election race in 2019.
Batkivshchyna commands the support of 19.5% of respondents who were asked who they would vote for if elections were held this Sunday. In second place is the Opposition Bloc with 11.4%, followed by the Civil Position Party with 11.2%, the Servant of the People Party with 10.5%, and the For Life Party with 7.2%, and the Radical Party with 7%. The eponymous Poroshenko Bloc Solidarity of President Petro Poroshenko is trailing in seventh place with 6.5%.
The other political parties that have declared for the race would not overcome the 5% threshold to enter parliament, although Samopomich with 4.3% and Svoboda with 4.1% have a chance of clearing the barrier.
Only 2.5% of respondents are ready to vote for the Agrarian Party, and the rating of other parties are less than 2%.
However, the level of undecidedness is high and even Tymoshenko’s lead is not wide given the deep problems the country faces. Almost one in six respondents said they were undecided.
Batkivshchyna and Poroshenko Bloc have relatively better indicators in all the macro regions of the country, with the exception of eastern regions, while the Civil Position Party draws most of its support from the the western and central regions of Ukraine.
The Opposition Bloc (the rump of the ousted president Viktor Yanukovych’s Regions party) and the For Life have strong positions in southern and eastern regions, while the Radical Party and the Servant of the People Party are more popular in central and southern regions. Samopomich and Svoboda are most popular in western regions.
The willingness to participate in the parliamentary elections is lower than in the presidential elections: 46% of respondents are clearly going to vote, yet every fourth is more likely than not.
2.2 Politics - misc
7 UKRAINE Country Report September 2018 www.intellinews.com
Russia must agree to transport at least 30 to 40bn cubic meters of gas