Page 7 - BNE_magazine_06_2019

bne June 2019 The Month That Was I 7
Economics
Eastern Europe
The European Bank for Reconstruc- tion and Development (EBRD) has revised downward its forecast for the growth of Belarus' real GDP in 2019 to 2% year-on-year from 2.5% y/y. The multinational lender also forecasts GDP growth of 1.8% y/y in 2020, Interfax reported on May 13.
The growth of Ukraine’s real GDP in the first quarter of 2019 slowed to 2.2% compared to the same period last year, against 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 3.3% in 2018 as a whole, according to preliminary data posted by the State Statistics Service.
The average wage in Ukraine should reach $620 in dollar terms that is around UAH16,300 by 2021, the nation's Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman said on May 14. "The govern- ment has a clear guideline regarding the average wage in Ukraine for 2021. In dollar terms, this is $620 – an absolutely real figure that will help increase the motivation of Ukrainians to work on their own economy.”
Central Europe
Moody’s affirmed Estonia’s issuer ratings at A1 with stable outlook. The affirmation of the rating comes on the back of the dynamism and resilience of the Estonian economy and very low debt levels with the country’s susceptibility to geopolitical risks balancing out the posi- tives to an extent.
Slovakia’s GDP posted y/y growth of 3.7% in the first quarter of this year
at constant prices, driven mostly by industry and household consumption. Seasonally adjusted, GDP increased by 3.8% y/y and by 0.9% month-on-month, according to data published by the Slo- vak Statistics Office.
The unemployment rate in Estonia came in at 4.7% in the fourth quarter,
falling 2.1pp y/y, data from Statistics Estonia showed. The joblessness rate thus remains at an 11-year low as an effect of persisting strong demand for labour. Estonia’s small labour market has been tightening in recent years because of an ageing population and emigration.
Hungary's industrial output rose 8% y/y in March, according to both raw and adjusted figures, up from 5.9% in the previous month, the Central Statistics Office (KSH) said. In a monthly comparison, industrial output was 1%.
Polish GDP growth surprised to the upside, a flash estimate showed. The economy grew a seasonally adjusted 4.6% y/y in the first quarter, main- taining the expansion rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018. The result is above the consensus that expected growth of 4.4% y/y and shows the Polish economy defying the slowdown abroad, especially in the Eurozone, Germany in particular.
Southeast Europe
Local producers have not benefitted from Kosovo’s imposition of 100% tariffs on goods imported from Serbia and Bosnia, as – despite optimistic fore- casts from the authorities – there was no corresponding increase in local produc- tion, said the GAP Institute for Advanced Studies, a local think tank. The biggest beneficiaries were Slovenia, Israel
and Turkey, whose exports to Kosovo increased significantly.
The monetary board of Romania’s central bank kept monetary policy unchanged, with the monetary rate at 2.5% per year. The decision is in line with anticipations. However, some analysts said the robust Q1 GDP growth can be interpreted
as an argument for rate hikes to tackle inflationary pressures.
Eurasia
Prices of consumer goods and ser- vices in Azerbaijan rose 2.4% in the first four months of 2019, compared to the same period of 2018, the State Statistical Committee said. The biggest price rise recorded was for services, up 3.7%, while prices for food, beverages and tobacco products were up by 2.0%, and for non-food products by 1.2%.
FDI from the Shanghai Coopera- tion Organisation (SCO) countries flowing to Kyrgyzstan amounted to $2.4bn in 2018, up by 3% y/y, Kyrgyz Deputy Minister of Economy Eldar Abakirov said, during the third Kyrgyzstan-China – Analytical Dialogue forum. The SCO is a China-led inter- governmental organisation which also boasts Russia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan as long- standing members, along with India and Pakistan which joined in 2017.
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