Page 30 - UKRRptNov21

6.1.1 Budget dynamics - results
State budget revenues exceeded Treasury expectations by 4.5%.
Revenues for the period January-October 2021 were ₴1.018 trillion ($38.7bn), which was 4.5% or 43.7bn ($1.66bn)l more than forecast and 21% higher than in the same period last year, reported treasury.gov.
Even with this surplus in revenues, the government continues to lag behind in expenditures by 7.3% in the period January-October 2021. The general fund received a total of ₴862.1bn ($32.8bn), of which ₴488.2bn ($18.55bn) were taxes from the State Tax Service and another ₴321.6bn ($12.2bn) was from the State Customs Service. Expenditures during this time amounted to ₴921.5bn ($35.01bn), which was 7.3% below planned outlays, reported the Ministry of Finance.
Ukraine's state budget revenue provisionally rose 22.2% y/y to UAH94bn in October, outperforming the plan by 2.2%, the State Treasury reported on November 1. Net tax revenue increased 20.1% y/y to UAH39bn (3.3% above the plan) amid 18.7% y/y growth in gross tax revenue and a 14.9% y/y increase in VAT reimbursement. Customs revenue advanced 23.6% y/y to UAH37bn (1.5% above the plan).
In 10M21, state budget revenue surged 21.0% y/y to UAH1,018bn, which is 4.5% above the plan. Net tax revenue advanced 16.4% y/y to UAH488bn (5.0% above the plan) amid a 14.4% y/y jump in gross tax revenue and a 7.3% y/y increase in VAT reimbursement. Customs revenue surged 37.1% y/y to UAH322bn (2.8% above the plan).
Local budgets' fiscal revenue improved 19.7% y/y to UAH287bn in 10M21, which is 4.9% above the plan. Social payments (pensions and other social fund contributions paid by employers) advanced 18.7% y/y to UAH281bn.
The budget collections remained strong in October. It’s likely that the outperformance of the budget collections against the plan will fade away by the end of the year. The recent acceleration of inflation above the level expected during the development of the budget-2021 means that the inflation component will be a significant factor for reaching planned budget collections in 2021.
Ukraine’s general budget switched to a deficit of UAH32.0bn in September from a surplus of UAH52.9bn in the prior month, the State Treasury reported on October 26. General budget revenue surged 30% y/y to UAH130.8bn after increasing 35% y/y in August. General budget expenditures increased 13% y/y to UAH161.6bn, after increasing 8% y/y in August.
In 9M21, the general budget surplus amounted to UAH2.5bn (vs. a deficit of UAH59.0bn in 9M20).
Tax revenue jumped 29% y/y to UAH113.5bn in September, slowing from 37% y/y growth in August. In particular, enterprise profit tax more than doubled year on year, VAT on imported goods surged 52% y/y. The revenue from personal income tax increased 12% y/y. Net VAT increased 13% y/y (vs. 4% y/y growth in August) as gross VAT revenue increased 18% y/y and VAT reimbursement increased 24% y/y.
30 UKRAINE Country Report November 2021 www.intellinews.com