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2021 by 0.2–0.9%. In the coming years, economic losses will decrease, but demographic losses will remain measurable in a decade.
The ACRA model assumes an excess mortality rate in 2020 of 360 thousand people and two scenarios for the development of a pandemic in 2021 - with an excess mortality rate of 100 thousand people and 250 thousand people. At the working age, 25-45% of deaths in connection with the coronavirus, the agency suggests, therefore, the excess mortality in working age for April 2020 - June 2021 will be from 115 thousand to 274 thousand people.
In the first scenario, the long-term loss of labor force in 2021 will be 0.16% compared to the situation without coronavirus, in the second - 0.37%. If in the first case the demographic trace of losses in labor will cease to be noticeable by 2030, then in the second it will remain even by this year at the level of 0.2%.
“If we assume that more than 85% of the deaths were at the age of 45 and older, then the demographic effect of the pandemic should mostly flatten out 20 years after the end of the pandemic,” Dmitry Kulikov, deputy director of the group of sovereign ratings and macroeconomic analysis of ACRA, told the publication.
2.4 Government to penalise companies that damage the environment
Corporate polluters could see their ability to pay shareholders targeted if they are found responsible for damage to the environment, under new plans proposed by the Russian government amid a spate of ecological catastrophes, RT reported.
Moscow paper RBK published the leaked order, which was handed to the environmental, industrial, and trade ministers by the country’s deputy prime minister, Viktoria Abramchenko in February.
In the missive, she instructed officials to bring forward amendments that would “ensure the owners of industrial infrastructure facilities fulfill the obligation to eliminate the damage to the environment” and limit the passing on of profits from companies that fail to comply.
Dmitry Marinchenko, a senior director from financial giant the Fitch Group, told RBK that the proposals were a “pretty radical measure” and warned that, “if implemented, it is important that it is proportional and there is no room for abuse or unfair competition.” In September, Abramchenko said that businesses should be “held responsible” for cleaning up after themselves, decommissioning facilities, and mopping up accumulated pollution on industrial sites. The government had come under pressure to strike a hard line against companies after the state pollution watchdog warned of the threat of an “ecological Chernobyl” because of oil waste and mercury seeping from an abandoned Siberian chemical plant.
16 RUSSIA Country Report March 2021 www.intellinews.com