Page 22 - RusRPTMar21

2.12 Russian business and consumer confidence
There was a remarkable upswing in business confidence in January,
according to Rosstat’s monthly survey. Confidence levels rose to -1, its highest level since May 2019 marking a return to pre-coronacrisis levels.
Business confidence in Russia is highly seasonal with the winter months before the long holiday usually falling heavily to as low as -8. However, in 2020 despite the multiple shocks to the economy the confidence levels didn't fall quite as far as usual, dropping to -7.3 in November as the shock concerns were offset by the optimism for a bounce back that came with the certification of the various vaccines to combat the coronavirus (COVID-19).
Consumer confidence is only measured by Rosstat quarterly and the last reading in the 4Q20 remained at -26, the same levels as during the crisis year in 2016.
However, the CBR’s InFOM index was higher in January. The Central Bank’s consumer confidence measure, the InFOM indicator, ticked up in January to 90, the highest level since the pandemic began, but still below the normal level in the mid-90s. This is the freshest consumer confidence indicator that we have, as the Rosstat data tend to be quite stale by the time they are published, and the improvement is good news, but confidence is still not restored.
22 RUSSIA Country Report March 2021 www.intellinews.com