Page 60 - RusRPTMar21

5.2.2 Current account dynamics
The CBR has published a preliminary estimate of the balance of payments for January. According to this information, the current account registered a surplus of $6.8bn, which is down from the $10.6bn seen last January.
The trade balance surplus dropped from last January's $13.4bn to $9.4bn, which mostly owed to a lower oil price (Brent averaged $55.0/bbl versus $63.8/bbl last January). Capital outflow from the private sector came in at $8bn, which is below last January's $9.1bn. International reserves, meanwhile, rose by $3bn.
The higher oil price to continue supporting the current account as oil prices went over $60 in the middle of February for the first time in over a year, which may reach a surplus of $50bn by the end of this year.
Meanwhile, given that the oil price has exceeded the base level set in the budget, the CBR has resumed buying FX from the market. These purchases could reach $16bn this year if the oil price averages $55/bbl.
60 RUSSIA Country Report March 2021 www.intellinews.com