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bne June 2017 Special focus I 39
Kazakh retail sales moved up 5.5% y/y in January-March reaching KZT1.77tn ($5.23bn), according to the latest published State Statistics Committee data. The gain reflects a continuation
of the household consumption recovery that took place as the Kazakh tenge stabilised in the second half of 2016. That followed the currency's sharp depreciation in the second half of 2015, which caused prices of imported goods to jump. The tenge was trading at KZT311.9 to the dollar as of 1050 local time on April 25, compared to the KZT333.6 recorded at the start of the year. Retail sales will likely continue rising in coming months supported
by the low base carried over from the previous year.
Kazakhstan’s gross foreign exchange and gold reserves stood at $30bn
at the end of February, rising by 2% since the end of January, Kapital news agency has reported, citing the central bank’s chairman. The bank has previ- ously attributed the increase to its non-intervention policy with regards
to the country’s floating exchange rate. The country’s monetary base expanded by 0.2% m/m to KZT4.7tn ($13.8bn) in February. Total foreign reserves, including the National Fund’s assets, have reached $91bn or 70%
of GDP, according to the report.
Kazakhstan's central bank cut its policy rate to 12% from 12.5% on December 14 citing easing price growth. Further cuts, however, would be harder to justify, the bank said in a sign that its easing cycle might be coming to an end. Maintaining price stability will be the Kazakh central bank's top priority for 2017, the bank said on December 7 as it unveiled its strategy for next year. The National Bank of Kazakhstan said it will continue its policy of inflation targeting with a 6%-8% range. Consumer
prices in Kazakhstan increased by 8.7% y/y in November, as growth eased for the fourth straight month.
Kazakh retail sales y/y %
Kazakh gross international reserves GIR eop $ mn - monthly
Kazakhstan inflation vs monetary policy rate y/y
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