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bne June 2017 Eurasia I 49
“The problem runs much deeper and. cannot be calculated in economic terms,” Gussarova says, noting such factors as the number of internet
users in each of the five countries,
as the internet has grown to be one
of the primary recruitment tools,
as well as “traditionalist [cultural] value systems”, which may clash with those of the secular world, among multitudes of other causes. Gussarova believes the recruitment process is “deeply personal” for each recruit;
as such, attempts to track any trends specific to the region may fall flat.
So far, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have attempted to crack down on various elements of Islamic extremism, but their actions have only emboldened radicals. Though crackdowns in Uzbekistan
have been violent, Tajikistan has also attacked local Islamic customs. At the same time, the threat of radical Islam has been politically convenient for both countries, but especially for Tajikistan, where the only formidable opposition group, the Islamic Revival Party, was shut down in 2015 under the pretext of its alleged affiliation with extremism.
Nursultan Nazarbayev raised the issue of banning Islamic attire and beards associated with extremism at a meeting with Kazakhstan’s Spiritual Board of Muslims in April.
That, coupled with the proposed
ban on Salafism from October,
could potentially enhance the
oil-rich country’s vulnerability to radicalisation amongst the population.
“There are approximately 15,000
to 16,000 followers of Salafism
in Kazakhstan – they are not all extremists,” Kazakh political analyst Dosym Satpayev tells bne IntelliNews. “The number isn’t small considering Kazakhstan’s population, which raises the following questions: Where will most of them go? Will they reject their beliefs or will they develop an underground form of Salafism?”
By failing to tackle these questions, the authorities in Kazakhstan – as in other Central Asian countries
– could be storing up serious problems for the future.
the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Instead, the post-Soviet governments usually find themselves dealing with disparate cells of radicals.
The rise of radical Islam in the region has most often been blamed on the regional economic crisis, as well as general poor socio-economic conditions for lower segments of society. However, Gussarova believes this explanation is too simple.
The Kazakh authorities have taken their fair share of counterproductive measures against terrorism in the past. Bans on the Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami (HUT) group in 2005 and Tablighi Jamaat in 2013 have only moved
the movements into prison cells –
an unprecedented opportunity for
a steady supply of potential recruits. More importantly, following in Rahmon’s footsteps, Kazakh President
“Will they reject their beliefs or will they develop an underground form of Salafism?”
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Selected headlines from past month:
· Rouhani trounces Iran's hardliners with landslide re-election
· UN High Commissioner for Human Rights in historic Uzbekistan visit breakthrough · Mongolian Stock Exchange fights to retain position on frontier market watchlist
· Xi throws Chinese might behind One Belt, One Road initiative
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