Page 8 - IRANRptOct21

2.3 Biden administration ‘reviewing sanctions waiver okaying Iranian fuel sales to Afghanistan’
The Biden administration is reportedly reviewing a 2018 sanctions waiver that okays Afghanistan’s purchases of Iranian fuel. The review started following the takeover of the country by the Taliban.
A US State Department spokesperson told Middle East Eye (MEE) that the waiver policy put in place by the former Trump administration "remains under active review". A threat to withdraw the waiver could add to the leverage the US has as it seeks to pressure Tehran to set a date for a resumption of the Vienna talks aimed at finding a path to reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. Afghanistan is heavily reliant on Iranian fuel to meet its energy needs.
Since the Taliban seized power in August, cross-border trade with Iran in petroleum products has boomed to roughly $5m a day, according to The Wall Street Journal. That makes fuel sales to Afghanistan a significant source of US dollars for Iran's economy, battered as it is by US sanctions and cut off from the global financial system by the “maximum pressure” campaign brought in by the former Trump White House.
Howard Shatz, a senior economist at the Rand Corporation, told MEE: "These transactions are not insignificant. If they are cut off, the effect would be felt in Tehran."
However, Shatz also noted that even if Washington wanted to enforce sanctions on Iranian fuel sales to the Taliban, it could prove difficult. "We don't have a lot of leverage with Iran and Afghanistan," he said.
Shatz was also cited as saying that if the Biden administration decided to end the waiver, one effect would be to cut off third parties involved in the purchase or sale of the fuel from the US financial system.
"It would likely discourage businesspeople in the Gulf from facilitating any transactions," he added, observing also that individuals from countries like China or Russia could step in to fill the void.
8 IRAN Country Report October 2021 www.intellinews.com