Page 10 - GEORptApr19

3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Georgia’s GDP up 3.5% in January
Georgia’s 2018 GDP growth recorded at 4.8% after Q4 acceleration
Georgia’s estimated GDP growth rate in January was 3.5%, the country's statistics office said on February 28.
Real growth in January compared to the same month of last year was posted for the following sectors: trade, hotels and restaurants, financial intermediation and real estate, renting and business activities. Declines in growth were recorded for manufacturing and construction.
Georgia’s GDP growth accelerated to 4.8% y/y in Q4 from Q3’s 3.7% y/y, meaning the country’s expanded by 4.8% y/y in 2018 overall.
That compares to 2017’s 5% advance and is not far from Georgia’s performance over the medium term, which has remained robust in recent years.
This year the government expects the country, increasingly a popular tourist destination, to see growth of 4.5%.
Central bank governor Koba Gvenetadze told Reuters last week that he expected the economy to grow by at least 5% in 2019.
3.2 Macro outlook
IMF expects Georgia’s GDP growth to clock 4.6% in 2019
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a broadly optimistic forecast for Georgia’s economy, foreseeing 4.6% GDP growth in 2019.
Its conclusions came following talks in Tbilisi on recent economic and financial developments and progress with structural reforms. The Fund will return to Georgia for an April-May fourth review of the IMF programme being undertaken in the country.
The growth expected for 2019 is only marginally behind last year’s 4.7% advance. It should arise substantially because of significant infrastructure investment that will compensate for weaker external demand and slower credit growth, the Fund said.
Georgia’s current account deficit is projected to stabilise at around 8% of GDP (no change from 2018, but down from 8.5% of GDP in 2017), owing to still-robust growth in exports and remittances.
10 GEORGIA Country Report April 2019 www.intellinews.com