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Miha Hribernik. “With many countries still in lockdown, and the full economic shock of the outbreak yet to be felt, we expect the number of protests to surge over the next 2-3 months.”
Verisk Maplecroft concluded that the outlook was particularly worrying for frontier and emerging markets where the post-pandemic economic outlook is bleak. Iran, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Algeria and Ethiopia are among countries facing a “perfect storm” of grassroots anger—protests triggered by the pandemic’s economic fallout look set to combine with unrest over pre-existing grievances over issues ranging from poverty to food supply, it said.
“Our base case from January—that 2020 will see a surge in protests and that the coming decade is set to be one of unprecedented unrest—still stands,” said Hribernik. “But in the countries least prepared to bounce back from the pandemic, it now looks like a best-case scenario.”
Russia, Turkey, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia face risks that are only slightly less acute than those of the countries with the most “perfect storm” potential, the report added.
Belarus, Bulgaria and Serbia, as well as Congo and Ethiopia, are among countries to have been shaken by anti-government protests in recent days. There was a drop-off in unrest in emerging and frontier markets in March, according to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), after the widespread introduction of lockdowns. But with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting that growth in emerging markets and developing economies will contract by 1% this year, certain simmering pots of tension may come to the boil.
Hribernik used five factors to determine the ability of 142 countries to bounce back from the pandemic. That was combined with data from past protests to determine projections of civil unrest. “It’s a tinderbox” Hribernik said. “It doesn’t take as much as it did a year ago.”
10​ IRAN Country Report August 2020 www.intellinews.com