Page 18 - IRANRptAug20

4.3 ​Labour and income
4.3.1​Labour market, unemployment dynamics
Iran’s fertility rate drops to 1.7 as economy shrinks
Pandemic ‘could leave up to quarter of Iran’s workforce jobless’
Iran’s total fertility rate (TRF) dropped to 1.7 in the year to March 2020 from 2 in the year to March 2019. Couples continued to refrain from having children or additional children given the country’s challenging economic situation, latest data from the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI) make clear.
The Islamic Republic’s TFR has been on a downward trajectory for more than three decades, following a massive boost seen in the years that came soon after the 1979 revolution. Efforts brought in to control the population in the 1980s and 1990s have been observed by the United Nations as “working too well”, with some estimates showing a 70% drop in the TFR in the past three decades. Both the strain of economic decline brought about by waves of sanctions—the latest being the crushing measures brought in by the US Trump administration since 2018—and emigration have also played big roles in pushing down the number of babies being born in Iran, a country of 84mn.
Gilan Province registered the lowest TFR at 1.1.
At the other end of the scale, impoverished Sistan and Baluchestan Province, largely populated by Iran’s Sunni minority and bordering Pakistan, saw the highest TFR at 3.4. However, that compares to 3.7 in the year to March 2018. Efforts by the Iranian government to turn the tide on the TRF decline have included in 2016 the supreme leader’s office promoting the merits of multiple offspring in poster campaigns in Tehran and other cities. But that particular effort met with a lot of ridicule from those suffering from a tanking economy and unrealistic property prices.
With the decline in new births, Iran is hurtling towards having an aged society faster than official estimates have up to now predicted.
As many as 6.43mn Iranians, making up around a quarter of the workforce of Iran, could find themselves jobless because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, according to a study by Iran’s Parliament Research Centre.
A minimum of 2.87mn jobs would be lost amid the health and economic emergency, the study also concluded.
Given the added difficulties caused to US-sanctions-hit Iran by the virus outbreak, its economy would shrink between 7.5% and 11%, it also said. Iran’s non-oil dollar exports fell by almost 30% y/y in the four-week period starting February 20, while exports fell by 7% y/y in the year ended March 19, official statistics cited by the report showed.
President Hassan Rouhani on April 29 said Iran has reopened for business despite the persistent coronavirus difficulties as there was no end in sight to the crisis. "Due to uncertainty about when this virus will end, we are preparing for work, activity and science," he said.
18​ IRAN Country Report August 2020 www.intellinews.com