Page 22 - IRANRptAug20

Iran had over $100bn of gross official reserves in 2019, says IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the government held $112bn of foreign assets and reserves in March last year. It also indicated that Iran ran a current account surplus.​ The figures imply that Iran might withstand the sanctions without an external payments crisis.
But the IMF also noted that Tehran was having difficulty accessing some of its reserves as its relations with foreign banks were constrained by the threat of US sanctions. Meanwhile, sanctions could cut the current account surplus sharply given the severe disruption they are causing to trade.
The IMF estimated in its latest World Economic Outlook released on April 14 that Iran’s current account balance​ across 2019, 2020 and 2021 would likely be at -0.1%, -4.1% and -3.4% of GDP, respectively, as a result of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
5.1.2 I​mport/export dynamics
Trade between Iran and EU falls 2.5% y/y to €1.5bn in first four months
Iran-China trade recorded as 40% down in Jan-Apr
Iran expresses interest in creating
Trade between Iran and the European Union in the January to April period reached a value of €1.47bn, marking a 2.5% y/y decline, according to data from the Statistical Office of the EU (Eurostat).
Trade with Europe took a massive hit in the wake of the reimposition of heavy unilateral sanctions on Iran from the US in 2018 by US President Donald Trump. Despite not officially adhering to the sanctions, multinational companies have generally avoided the Iranian market, fearing Washington would apply secondary sanctions to foreign companies continuing to do business with Iran.
In the four months, Iranian exports to the EU stood at €245.5mn, 4.73% down compared with the same period in the previous year.
Of European countries, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands were Iran’s top three trading partners, with bilateral trade volumes standing at €628.3mn (+26.45% y/y), €205.96mn (-22.09% y/y) and €153.41mn (+20.35%y/y), respectively, said Eurostat.
Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic’s trade exchanges with Luxembourg (€674,468), Slovakia (€4.34mn) and Bulgaria (€59.66mn) jumped by 850.93%, 142.96% and 116.60% respectively y/y.
Chinese customs data released this week indicates that trade between Iran and China in the January to April period was valued at $5.26bn, marking a decline of around 40% y/y, IBENA has reported.
Figures from the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China also put Iran’s exports to China during the four months at $2.92bn, translating to a 61.2% y/y drop. China’s exports to Iran were given as 3.2% y/y up at $2.92bn.
China imported $5.93bn worth of goods from Iran between January and April 2019, the report also said.
Iran-China trade was given a value of $1.32bn for April, with Iran’s exports to China accounting for $526.24mn and imports from China $796.07mn.
Oil is the main import item China takes from Iran. The collapse in oil prices would appear to be a key reason for the reduced flow of Iranian exports to China during the period in question. Reduced demand in China due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak was likely another reason.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has stated that Iran is ready to establish a barter system with Kazakhstan to deepen bilateral trade
22​ IRAN Country Report August 2020 www.intellinews.com