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September 29, 2017 www.intellinews.com I Page 2
Turkey weighs its options as Iraqi Kurds vote for independence
ry through into Turkish, Iranian or Syrian Kurds stepping up efforts for their own autonomy is yet to be seen, although Kurdistan Regional President Masoud Barzani has stated that the referendum victory will not be used in any immediate attempt to declare independence.
Of countries with a major say in Middle East politics, only Russia and Israel did not call on the Kurds to desist from the vote. Russian President Vladimir Putin is due in Ankara on September 28 to hold talks on the Syria conflict and other matters with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Though it has warned it will do so, Ankara is yet to close its busy Habur border gate with northern Iraq. “But that does not mean it will remain this way,” Turk- ish Customs Minister Bulent Tukenkci said, according to Hurriyet Daily News. He added that the number of trucks passing through the border gate had fallen.
“We can continue trading with the Iraqi central government through Iran or via sea or airways,” the minister reportedly added.
Reliable figures on Turkey’s economic exposure to the region that falls under the KRG are hard to come by. Bilateral trade between the KRG and Turkey is worth $2.5bn, according to Tufenkci, al- though some data circulating in respected media in recent days has put the figure slightly or much higher. Turkey exports substantial consignments of food to the region and a suspension of trade would certainly deal it some kind of economic blow. However, it is not dependent on oil flows from the Iraqi Kurds. Any that are blocked by sanctions could be quite easily replaced.
The Iranians, meanwhile, are also finalising their response to the vote they absolutely did not wish to see happen. In a first sign of action being stepped
up, the Tehran bureau of Kurdistan 24 news agency on September 27 reported that it had been ordered to shut down by the Iranian government.
In the referendum, voters were asked the ques- tion: “Do you want the Kurdistan Region and the Kurdistani areas outside the administration of the Region to become an independent state?” More than 72.6% of eligible voters, or 3.3mn people (both Kurd and non-Kurd), cast a ballot, with 92.73% of valid votes in favour of ‘Yes’ and 7.27% in favour of ‘No’.
Washington had made it clear that it was not sup- portive of the decision to hold the vote while Bagh- dad made a last-minute request for the “cancel- lation” of the result. Iraq's parliament asked the prime minister to deploy troops to the oil-rich territory of Kirkuk and other disputed multi-ethnic areas held by Kurdish Peshmerga fighters.
Ankara has said that the outcome of the referen- dum is null and void for Turkey and has threat- ened to cut off the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline that carries oil from the Kurdish territory in northern Iraq to world markets.
“All possible measures, including military and economic options, are now on the table against the Iraqi Kurds,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a speech on September 27. Erdogan called the vote “illegal” and said that it constituted a threat to Turkey’s national security.
“Despite the fact that Iraqi special forces joined
a Turkish military exercise on the border with Iraq, and despite Erdogan’s remarks about keep- ing military options on the table, it is not likely that Turkey will get involved in a massive military operation into Iraq targeting [Kurdistan Regional President Masoud] Barzani and his KRG,” political commentator Murat Yetkin wrote in a September 27 article for Hurriyet Daily News.
Perhaps the most that will happen militarily
on Turkey’s side will be some point operations against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which