Page 23 - bne IntelliNews Country Report: Russia Dec17

term. All these nations are reaching a tipping point where they will have to reinvest themselves, ditching the low-cost, export-orientated models they have followed so far.
Southeastern Europe
In southeastern Europe, average growth is also expected to accelerate, reaching 3.6% in 2017 before moderating to 3.3% in 2018. The Greek economy has returned to growth in the first half of the year amid progress in reforms and rising confidence.
Growth in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus as a whole is expected to pick up from near-zero to close to 1.5% in 2017 as headwinds from low commodity prices and the earlier recession in Russia subside, although Azerbaijan’s economy is projected to remain in recession. A gradual recovery in the region is set to continue in 2018.
Growth in Turkey is projected to accelerate to 5.1% in 2017 on the back of government stimuli before slowing to 3.5% in 2018 as the fiscal impact wears off.
Economies in the southern and eastern Mediterranean (SEMED) region are expected to show growth of 3.8% in 2017 and 4% in 2018, supported by reform implementation and a continued recovery in the tourism sector, as well as export rebounds in Egypt and Jordan.
Morocco is the only country in the SEMED region that is expected to see a slowdown in growth during 2018, as the base effect from the agricultural rebound in 2017 (after a very poor 2016) is removed.
2.9 Watcom shopping index
The school shopping bump that lifted the Watcom Shopping index at the end of summer has worn off and the index has fallen back heavily in the last weeks to below the previous three year levels again in October.
Russia’s economy has been recovering this year, as has incomes and retail turnover, but the good news doesn't seem to have trickled down to high street level yet where consumers are still counting their pennies and buying only what they have to.
The Watcom index is the most immediate and direct measure of retail activity in Russia as it measures the number of shoppers and their spend in real time using 3D camera technology placed in Moscow’s leading malls.
The index is having its worst year since its inception in 2014, just before the “silent crisis” years of 2015-2016. The index showed its worst quarter for sales since 2014 with its worst result in May ever of 468.8.
Things picked up at the end of the summer a little as families got ready for the new school year. The index jumped to nearly 500 as families stocked up on pens and rulers (and more besides), breaking the long run of misery earlier in this year.
23 RUSSIA Country Report December 2017 www.intellinews.com