Page 4 - IRANRptApr20
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1.0 Executive summary
Iran has the world’s third worst coronavirus epidemic, behind those of China and Italy. It has recorded 17,361 infections. A total of 147 infected people have been recorded as dying in the past 24 hours, a new daily record.
Moreover, Iran’s economy has been battered by US sanctions since Donald Trump pulled Washington out of the nuclear deal in May 2018 and switched back to a heavy sanctions regime. The Iranian rial (IRR) has dropped around fourfold against major currencies.
However, the reluctance of Washington to relax its maximum pressure campaign on Tehran is shown by reports quoting European sources that the US may be preparing to use its veto on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) board to block an application lodged by Iran for a $5bn emergency loan to help it battle the COVID-19 crisis that has gripped the Islamic Republic. China on March 16 called for the US sanctions to be immediately lifted, saying continued sanctions were “against humanitarianism”.
On March 17, state television quoted the results of a computer simulation conducted by academics at the presitigious Sharif University of Technology in Tehran that predicts that there could be as many as 3.5mn CORVID-19 deaths in Iran if the authorities cannot get a grip on the crisis by the end of May. The best of three possible simulated outcomes, resulting in 12,000 deaths from 120,000 infections, would require officials to have much more success in suppressing the virus with social distancing, citywide quarantines, improved medical supplies and other breakthroughs and measures.
The Trump administration has said medical supplies are available to Iran through a new Swiss humanitarian vehicle approved by the US. However, the Guardian reported on March 18 that UK officials fear this involves so many conditions as to be ineffective.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week that “any nation considering humanitarian assistance to Iran should seek the release of all dual and foreign nationals” from Iranian prisons. March 17 saw Iran release 85,000 prisoners on temporary release to help avoid an explosion of infections in crowded jails. Among them was Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, an Iranian-British dual national accused of activities aimed at toppling Iran’s clerical establishment, which she denies.
In a letter to world leaders sent at the end of last week, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Europe and Iran were involved in the same struggle and how efforts to fight COVID-19 pandemic in Iran have been severely hampered by US sanctions, urging them to cease observing them.
In the January 2020 edition of its Global Economic Prospects report released on January 9, the World Bank estimates that Iranian GDP contracted by as much as 8.7% in 2019, a year that saw the Trump administration gradually introduce tougher and tougher sanctions against Tehran including a drive to squeeze all Iranian oil off world export markets.
In further bad news for Iran, while the World Bank six months ago was
4 IRAN Country Report April 2020 www.intellinews.com
