Page 11 - TURKRptDec21

2.2 Turkey faces threat of chaos amid lira volatility and economic sudden stop
On the evening of November 23, some limited street protests broke out after the lira lost 15% against USD on the day.
The opposition is afraid that the regime’s trolls are actually working to drive people to the streets as something they think they can turn to despotic advantage. Police violence and chaos could follow.
Violence has worked in favour of the regime so far. However, this new situation is somewhat different to what has gone before in many respects.
For instance, there must be around 30mn hungry people at the moment in Turkey.
Then there’s the health of Erdogan. Turkey is said to remain a one-man show, but there has been an unmistakable deterioration in Erdogan’s countenance and demeanour in recent months and it begs some questions:
- Who is governing Turkey at the moment?
- Who is using the dictatorial powers Erdogan has amassed?
- Who is writing what Erdogan is reading on the prompters?
- How long can he continue?
The extreme volatility in the exchange rates has reached a level that will stop the country’s exports.
Domestic commercial activity is also grinding to a halt.
Banks’ equity is melting.
Supply chains relied on by supermarkets and other key market segments and industries in Turkey have been severely disrupted by the turmoil caused in the currency market.
At the supermarkets, quotas are currently being applied to many products, ranging from oil to sugar.
There is not a single representative of industry who has not been voicing
11 TURKEY Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com