Page 23 - TURKRptDec21

3.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro Indicators
Q1-19
Q2
Q3
Q4
2019
Q1-20
Q2
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1-20
Q2
Q3
Q4
GDP Growth (y/y, %)
-2.5
-1.6
1.0
6.0
0.9
4.4
-10.4
6.3
6.2
1.8
7.4
22.0
7.4
-
Electricity Consumption (y/y, Nov28)
-1.5
0.4
-1.5
0.5
-0.6
3.3
-11.5
3.6
4.5
0.2
5.7
25.8
11.6
8.5
Employed (active, mn)
27.0
26.9
26.9
26.7
26.7
25.1
20.8
25.2
25.1
24.1
25.8
26.6
27.1
-
Population (mn)
-
-
-
-
83.2
-
-
-
-
83.6
-
-
-
-
GDP (per capita, $)
-
-
-
-
9,127
-
-
-
-
8,599
-
-
-
-
GDP (current, TRYbn)
926
1,030
1,157
1,205
4,318
1,071
1,038
1,414
1,524
5,047
1,393
1,586
1,915
-
GDP (current prices, $bn)
172
176
204
208
760
176
153
197
192
717
189
189
225
-
CPI (%, eop, Oct)
19.7
15.7
9.3
11.8
11.8
11.9
12.6
11.8
14.6
14.6
16.2
17.5
19.9
-
Lira-loans (%, y/y, Nov 26)
3.0
-0.5
4.0
13.9
13.9
19.1
39.4
46.4
43.3
43.3
34.4
17.5
12.8
16.0
Policy Rate (%, active, eop)
25.5
23.9
16.3
11.4
11.4
9.3
7.6
11.1
17.0
17.0
19.0
19.0
18.0
15.0
CA Balance ($bn)
-1.88
-1.29
5.92
-1.07
1.67
-8.1
-11.9
-8.3
-6.7
-35.0
-7.5
-6.1
1.9
-
CA Balance/GDP (%)
-1.1
-0.7
2.9
-0.5
0.2
-4.6
-7.8
-4.2
-3.5
-4.9
-4.0
-3.2
0.8
-
Budget (TRYbn, Oct)
-36
-42
-7
-38
-124
-30
-80
-31
-32
-173
23
-55
-29
-17.4
Budget Balance/GDP (%)
-3.9
-4.1
-0.6
-3.1
-2.9
-2.8
-7.7
-2.2
-2.1
-3.4
1.6
-3.5
-1.5
-
USD/TRY (eop, Dec 2)
5.56 5.79 5.65 5.95 5.95 6.61 6.85 7.72 7.44 7.44
8.24
8.70
8.89
13.4
WARNING: If you use macroeconomic statistics in real life, avoid planning or pricing based on TUIK data.
“We think we will reach double digit growth rates as of end-year,” Erdogan said on November 4.
On November 30, BBVA (Madrid/BBVA) hiked its expectation for Turkey’s official 2021 GDP growth release to 11%.
Why not go the whole hog and say 15%?
The public “bidding” will continue until the ‘boombastic’ GDP announcement date in March 2022.
On November 30, Turkey released an official GDP growth of 7.4% for Q3.
23 TURKEY Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com