Page 8 - TURKRptDec21

appealed the ruling. The Erdogan regime takes any chance it can to slow the process while the US uses the case as a Sword of Damocles.
● Erdogan has managed to dig his claws into a “transactional” partnership with Joe Biden. He took over the Kabul Airport mission in Afghanistan. The question is how he can fulfil such a mission in such a hellish situation.
The Biden administration has somewhat backed the Erdogan regime to now but Erdogan wants more photoshoots. Such are Erdogan’s growing difficulties, though, that Biden’s tentative support and photoshoots may not be enough.
● Afghanistan: Turkey may be engaged in a hellish conflict scenario at any moment as its personnel (only civilians) at Kabul airport are open targets. It is said that Turkish military personnel are waiting in Pakistan to come to the rescue in case of an emergency.
● DEAL: Germany’s Social Democrat Party (SDP), Greens and FDP (neoliberal) have agreed on a coalition deal. Olaf Scholz of SDP will become Germany’s new chancellor. Parliament’s approval is expected before Christmas.
● Erdogan is pushing his luck too much this time. Following the recent rate cuts, end-2021 official inflation is seen at above 20%.
Following the latest lira depreciation, Turkey’s official CPI index data does not suggest a declining trend in the foreseeable future.
● Oct 28: The central bank hiked its expectation for end-2021 official inflation to 18.4% from the previous figure of 14.1% given in the July inflation assessment.
The upper limit on the official inflation forecast was also moved up, taking the expectation to 19.5% from 16%, closer to the market’s current anticipation of something above 20%.
● Jan 27: New quarterly inflation report and updated inflation forecasts will be released.
● December 3: Official inflation for November. The market assesses the figure must be something above 20%.
(November: 19.89%, September: 19.58%, August: 19.25%, July: 18.95%, June: 17.53%, May: 16.59%).
The Inflation Research Group (ENAG), an independent body led by Istanbul academics, gave a figure of 49.87% for November inflation.
Domestic producer price index (PPI) inflation was released by TUIK at 46.31% y/y, up from 43.96% in September.
● January 3: Official inflation for December (end-2021).
● December 16: Monetary policy committee meeting decision at 14h (?) Istanbul time.
Turkey’s monetary policy has entered absolutely unmapped territory since the “core inflation” story ended with the rate cut on October 21, when the policy rate was cut to 16%, below what the central bank contends is “core”.
8 TURKEY Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com