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like to see thrown at Ankara—but a more worrying matter right now is how the remnants of the Syrian conflict can be dealt with without any major clashes, for example, between Turkish armed forces and US-allied Kurdish militia, or between the advancing forces of Damascus and Vladimir Putin in Idlib and Erdogan’s jihadists. The Syrian regime appears to be showing more and more willingness to take pot shots at Turkish forces. Syria is still a mess even though pundits have been arguing for a few years now that the war has ended. With Erdogan in peril if he doesn’t play his difficult hand well and Syria and the wider region in a fragile and volatile state, September will witness some notable action in Turkish and regional politics.
Syrian army advances in northwest Syria are putting Turkish troops in the firing line, Reuters reported on August 22. They also threaten Ankara’s hopes of stopping a new wave of refugees on its southern border.
The offensive around Idlib, the last major rebel stronghold in Syria, has so far forced tens of thousands of civilians to flee towards Turkey. And it has cut off a Turkish military post deep inside Syria. The agreement to constrain fighting in the region, which the Turkish troops were supposed to be monitoring, appears to be unravelling fast, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan apparently unable to use his relations with Russia—which have lately even extended to buying Russian missile defence systems to the consternation and anger of the US and Nato—to persuade Moscow to curtail its backing for the Syrian army offensive.
Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed in 2017 to set up four “de-escalation zones” to stem fighting between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and rebels. But the Syrian army has retaken three of those areas. It is now advancing in the remaining one and has entered the town of Khan Sheikhoun, thereby cutting off Turkish troops at a military post near the town of Morek, 70 km (45 miles) inside Syria. A Turkish convoy sent to resupply the Morek post was halted on August 19 by an air strike.
“The situation there is of critical sensitivity,” Erdogan’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said after a cabinet meeting on August 21. Turkey supports some Syrian rebel factions. It has troops deployed at 12 military observation posts around the Idlib region.
Moscow has grown increasingly impatient over what it sees as Ankara’s failure to stop jihadists from the former Nusra Front taking over much of Idlib. Russia also says the fighters in Idlib and Hama provinces threaten its Hmeymim air base. “All observation posts will continue operations where they are located right now,” Kalin added, saying the agreements to halt military operations around Idlib must be respected. “Otherwise, both the violation of this agreement and the resulting humanitarian drama will be inevitable.” Turkey’s determination to stand by all 12 of its military posts in Idlib was reiterated this week by the government, and a senior security official told Reuters Ankara was standing by its troops on the ground. “Whichever observation post needs it, support is provided, the official said.
However, that will prove increasingly challenging for Turkey unless there is a change of course by Moscow or Damascus, which has repeatedly said it is committed to recapturing every inch of Syrian territory. “The Turkish observation posts are not constituted to defend themselves and at least one of them has been encircled by Syrian regime forces,” Ozgur Unluhisarcikli from the German Marshall Fund told the news agency, adding: “When the risk of conflict rises too much, Turkey will probably retreat.”
Erdogan would speak to Vladimir Putin about Idlib as soon as possible, Kalin told reporters after the cabinet meeting.
18 TURKEY Country Report September 2019 www.intellinews.com