Page 27 - bne Magazine Apri20

bne April 2020 Cover story I 27
Ukraine
VIRUS UPDATE
• Number of cases as of March 25: 145 • Number of deaths as of March 25: 3
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES
• State of emergency declared on March 25
• Shut down schools, public places, universities
• Closed the borders to rail and plane traffic on March 26 • No complete lock down on the population
ECONOMIC MEASURES
The main issue facing Ukraine is to secure a new $5.5bn IMF deal, which requires them to put in several new laws
on banking and land. Should the government in Kyiv fail to close the deal then it is looking at defaulting on its international debt this year and amplifying the already debilitating crisis.
• Increase budget spending that will double the planned deficit from UAH70bn ($3bn)
ECONOMIC FORECASTS (where available)
• Official growth forecast cut from 3.7% expansion in 2020 to 3.9% contraction
• UAH/$ exchange rate to UAH79
• Inflation to rise to 8.6% from 5.2%
Belarus
VIRUS UPDATE
• Number of cases as of March 25: 81
• Number of deaths as of March 25: 0
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES
• Belarus has done almost nothing to counteract the spread of the virus. Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko has not taken the crisis seriously. He told a TV reporter on the side of a ice hockey game in which he was participating that the population should wash their hands with vodka and maybe drink 50g a day
“but not at work.”
ECONOMIC MEASURES
Belarus has taken no economic actions to speak of.
• Approached the European Investment Bank (EIB) for aid to fight the virus.
• Cancelled a Eurobond issue in March due to market instability.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS (where available)
• Belarus’ economy will be affected insomuch as its economic fate is closely tied to Russia’s which is clearly going into recession.
• The deputy prime minister warned at the end of March that the government might default on some of its debt to the IFIs.
• Belarus' GDP contracted by 0.6% in January-February 2020 year-on-year.
• The Belarusian ruble fell to an all time low against the dollar and Euro in March.
• The foreign exchange reserves of Belarus dropped by $438mn, or 4.7% month-on-month, to $8.8bn
in February.
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