Page 38 - bne Magazine Apri20

38 I Cover story bne April 2020
due to domestic oversupply caused by countermeasures against coronavirus outbreak.
• Large families, people with disabilities and other socially vulnerable groups set to receive free groceries mostly consisting of domestically produced goods.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS (where available)
• Kazakhstan’s GDP was en route for further recovery as registered growth stood at 4.5% in 2019, up from 4.1% in 2018 and 4% in 2017. Now, with the collapse of world oil prices and the expected economic slowdown in China due to the coronavirus outbreak, Kazakh growth is expected to take a hit in 2020.
• Russian investment firm Renaissance Capital analysts Sofya Donets and Andrei Melaschenko in a recent note maintained a positive outlook on the Kazakh economy even under a scenario where oil prices fall below $30 per barrel, suggesting that growth would remain above 1%. The note did not consider a potential impact of
a pandemic, however.
• Kazakh authorities said Kazakhstan will revise its
economic growth outlook lower and increase the budget deficit to up to 3% of its GDP, compared to the previously planned 2.4%.
• Gas supplies to China have been cut by 20%-25% amid falling demand in China, though the Kazakh side claims the cut only returned the level of supplies to the levels seen last year.
Uzbekistan VIRUS UPDATE
• Number of cases as of March 26: 83
• Number of deaths as of March 26: 1
• Comment: The number of confirmed coronavirus cases
is increasing more rapidly as infection rates are rapidly catching up to neighbouring Kazakhstan. Most infections are concentrated in the capital Tashkent. The first
death from the virus was announced shortly after an announcement of a first death in Kazakhstan.
• The other side effect of the coronavirus pandemic –
the collapse of the global oil pact that sent hydrocarbons prices plummeting may not affect Uzbekistan directly as it only exports a fraction of its natural gas and does not export oil. However, an indirect effect may come from the loss of remittances being sent home by migrant workers in Russia as well as the loss of jobs by migrant workers as more measures are set into place.
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES
• Borders closed for all travel in and out of the country. Multiple cities and at least one province under lockdown: including Tashkent, Samarkand, Andijan, Gulistan
and the Surxondaryo province. Only food and medical products are allowed to be transported into Tashkent. Schools, universities and public spaces like restaurants are closed.
• All companies in Tashkent ordered to switch to remote work.
• Wearing protective masks in all major cities made
mandatory with $22 fines for violating the rules and $67 fines for repeat offenses.
• All public transport shut down from March 22. Only taxis are available, but have to get a certificate of disinfection for continued operation.
• The state-run airline, Uzbekistan Airways, said on March 15 it was suspending or cutting down the number of flights to a number of cities in Asia, Western Europe and the Middle East until end-April.
• All public events in the country, including the traditional Nowruz new year celebrations, have been cancelled.
ECONOMIC MEASURES
• Uzbek president Shavkat Mirziyoyev ordered the finance ministry to set up a fund of more than $1bn and to finance it with soft loans from international lending institutions and other sources.
• Uzbek central bank said sum currency unlikely to depreciate sharply despite steep drops in the value of the Russian ruble and the Kazakh tenge amid a collapse in oil prices.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS (where available)
• Uzbek authorities believe Uzbekistan could lose around $1.1bn from expected export revenue in 2020 due to
the global economic slowdown caused by the pandemic.
• The Uzbek government’s GDP projection for 2020 lowered to 3.7% instead of the previously projected 5.5%.
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