Page 70 - bne Magazine Apri20

70 I New Europe in Numbers bne April 2020
Ukraine average monthly income UAH vs USD
Crippling pandemic will cause Q2 GDP collapse of 17.2% in Turkey says JPMorgan
Turkey can expect the worst annualised growth collapse in the second quarter of any emerging market, at 17.2% q/q, given the crippling economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, JPMorgan warned on March 19.
“We now expect a 1H20 recession in emerging markets ex-China as [pandemic] containment is stepped up and as developed markets contract,” the US investment bank said.
Its analysts anticipated that the impact on Latin America (-12%) and Europe, Middle East and Africa (-13%) will mean the biggest single- quarter declines in these regions since the financial crisis years of 2008-09 in the coming months.
Real wages in Ukraine grew 12.5% y/y in January to $445
Real wages in Ukraine grew 12.5% y/y in January, speeding up from 11.3% growth in December, the State Statistics Service reported on February 28. The average monthly nominal wage dropped to UAH10,727 ($445) a month from UAH12,264 in December, or a 12.7% m/m slide
in real terms. In dollar terms wages are up by almost a third in the last year, but that still leaves Ukraine far behind its neighbour to the west and north.
February but composite index remains in the black
Russia’s IHS Markit Russia Services Business Activity Index fell slightly in February to 52.0 from 54.1 at the start of the year, but remains in the black ahead of the 50 no-change mark.
Services remain part of the Russian economy that has been consistently growing in the last few years as an increasingly large part of the economy goes online and, since December 2019, real incomes have started to grow again.
Russian corporates have a profitable 2019
After almost five years of crisis Russia’s corporates are back in profit and had a strong 2019, easily out-earning the year before, according to the most recent Rosstat numbers.
Net profits of Russian companies over the first eleven months of last year, the latest data available, were up RUB1.5 trillion to RUB14.3 trillion ($214bn), from the RUB12.8 trillion companies earned the year before, equivalent to an 11.1% gain year-on-year.
Russia industrial production vs PMI index
Russian corporates profits RUB bn (cumulative)
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