Page 18 - RusRPTAug19

income in 1H19 dropped -1.3% y/y in 1H19 and declined -0.2% y/y in 2Q19 in particular, according to Rosstat.”
That mild increase in incomes has push up retail sales, which grew +1.4% y/y in June. The dynamics in food and non-food retail sales were synchronised: the former increased +1.4% y/y, the latter rose by +1.5% y/y, VTB reports.
The outlook for this year is real income growth will remain flat but economic growth should pick up as the state’s RUB27 trillion spending programme starts
2.11 Russian business and consumer confidence
Business confidence has improved a lot this year with July turning in the third month in a row of -1% confidence amongst businessmen according to the Rosstat survey.
The business confidence results stands in stark contrast to consumer confidence survey, where the population remains largely depressed, weighed down by the five year long fall in real incomes.
From a low of -8% in December at the end of a decidedly nervous autumn, business confidence rapidly improved in January, jumping to -25 and then ticked up again to -1% in May.
The improved confidence survey numbers are a comment by businessmen on their own business, but they also remain depressed in that private corporate investment remains very depressed. Businessmen have got their businesses to the point where they are making money, but they are confident enough about the future to want to invest into growth.
The mood amongst Russian consumers brightened a tad in the second
18 RUSSIA Country Report August 2019 www.intellinews.com