Page 29 - RusRPTAug19

grew by more than 25% in 2010–2017, while economic growth was negligible in Perm and Chelyabinsk. In Novosibirsk and Ufa, small and medium-sized firms were the main engines of economic growth. Growth was driven by large enterprises in Kazan and Samara. Compared to the St. Petersburg and Moscow metropolises, Russia’s regional cities with more than amn people constitute minor economic units and are quite sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations. These cities grew faster than Moscow or St. Petersburg at the start of the decade, only to contract more violently after Russia went into recession in 2015. Fixed investment in these regional cities with amn people fell much more than in Moscow or St. Petersburg. The differences in living standards can also be seen in the quality-of-the-urban-environment index, which is jointly produced and maintained by Russia’s Ministry of Construction, Housing and Utilities, Strelka and Dom.rf. The index captures urban quality of life generally, and is based on sub-indices that track e.g. housing quality, availability of public services and infrastructure. According to the index, the quality of life in Moscow is good (214/300) and satisfactory in St. Petersburg (181), but mediocre (135) on average for other Russian cities with populations above one mn.
Key macroeconomic indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 5M19
2.3 0.5 2.9 4.3 2.8 1.7 4.3 5.1 6.8 2
114.9 48.7 2.7 2.7 62.7 65.7 69.5 65.4 70.8 66.4 7.75 7.75
2019e 2020e
1.1 2.3 2.1 2.5 1.5 2 4.2 3.8 1.3 1.8
118 93 1.9 1.6 65.3 64.5 64.7 65.4 70 75 7.25 6.75
GDP
Industrial output
Retail trade
Inflation (EOP)
Real wages
Current account, $ bn
Budget deficit, % of GDP
RUB/USD (avr) RUB/USD (EOP) Brent $ / bbl (avr) CBR rate
Source: Rosstat, BCS GM
0.7 -2.5 -0.2 1.6 1.7 -0.8 1.3 2.1 2.7 -10 -4.6 1.3
11.4 12.9 5.4 2.5 1.3 -9.5 0.6 2.9 59.5 69.6 25 35.2 -0.4 -2.5 -3.4 -1.4 38.4 61.1 67.1 58.3 56.2 72.9 60.7 57.6
99 52.4 43.6 54.3 17 11 10 7.75
29 RUSSIA Country Report August 2019
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